Less is more

Dante day dawns, and with it some excellent racing, but for the most part I think I'll be spectator rather than speculator. In the Middleton the highly touted Anna Pavlova takes centre stage and a strong run appears expected. In the Dante Authorized makes his seasonal bow amid high expectation - I know Pete thinks the world of the horse, although I haven't heard anything recently. I couldn't oppose either of these, but I'd need convincing to come in at short odds, so I'll probably just watch.

The race I like is the one with the least evidence to go on. There are two in the 3:50 that were expensive and bred to be fast and early - Nawaaff and Captain Gerrard - and if they deliver to expectation they should have the race between them. Nawaaff will have been cherry picked from the powerful Channon string for this, and will no doubt have strong support. Smart has yet to have his first 2yo winner this year, but he has a lot of ammo waiting to come out. CG looks primed and from a smaller stable he may have less support. I'll back Captain Gerrard to win and I may do a reverse forecast on the two.

I'll be watching a few at Salisbury. Party in the Park should win the first but I'll probably just watch. Moon Empress should go close in the 2:55, but a place bet feels the best option. Le Singe Noir may turn out to be the value in the 4:35 from a stable that is bang in form.