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King's Head gets his ground

King's Head goes today at Huntingdon, and he could be a real value bet. The ground is key for him. Last time he ran the rains came and ruined his chances - he gets another chance today on ground that he will appreciate. The firmer the ground the better his chances - the first races should give an indication.

There are a few this afternoon that may tempt me in. At the short priced end of the scale I like Fitzroy Crossing and Conwyn Bay at Ayr and Scarlett Heart at Lingfield. I may back Miss Wedge at Lingfield - she's clearly able but she doesn't look to be the most genuine and she might be one to trade back in running. The 5:20 at Ayr is a challenging race, and I think there is a lot to like about Apache Nation.

Disappointment

It was another very disappointing display from Thunderbolt Jaxon, and it highlights the folly of persevering with horses who don't do it on the track. There's no question that TJ has speed and some level of ability, but he's not showing it and his runs if anything are getting worse.

Pete has another 2yo running today, and I suspect he will keep his 100% record in tact. Western Art is not one of the leading lights, but he is decent and straightforward and should be up to winning a Leicester maiden. Mick Channon has one that is apparently fancied - Hatta Fort - and since he's provided the second to all of Pete's 2yo winners so far he can do so again.

There's not a lot else I like. I may have a bet on Wild Fell Hall in the last at Leicester - I think he'll go ok although I'm not convinced about the trip.

Thunderbolt

Mon Michel was pulled out on Sunday as we were unhappy about the ground. It was getting firmer by the hour and we didn't want to risk him on it. He'll probably come out on either Wednesday or Saturday.

Thunderbolt Jaxon goes tonight at Wolverhampton in what looks a pretty low grade race. He goes well on the home gallops but has been disappointing on the course. If the penny ever drops with him he still has the ability to make a decent horse - we'll try to make more of him today by pushing him on earlier. He'd be worth a bet at the right price.

I'll be backing Coyote Creek today in the 4.30 at Bath. This one ran behind Shawhill at Windsor last time in what I had down as a typically strong Windsor 3yo handicap. Ed Vaughan is an up and coming young trainer training alongside Henry Cecil at Warren Place. He's highly rated by those I know a Newmarket although he doesn't have many horses yet. CC doesn't have a great draw and there are still a few questions to be answered - he's not a max bet for me but at the right price he'd be a decent one.

Mon Michel

Adam Eterno ran a stinker, coming stone last. Kerrin McEvoy said he "ran green" - maybe so but for now I'm assuming that he's pretty useless, which I can live with as I was assuming that anyway and the other two with Brian are looking decent. All things considered Captain Hurricane ran ok - a step forward in his rehabilitation. Declaration of War won his maiden, which is great news given I have two unraced 2yos with Pete.

Mon Michel runs at Fakenham today. He's capable of winning the race in a canter, but he is a tricky ride on a small field. I still think he'll win and I'll be backing him, but he's not one for the mortgage money. I may also have a small bet on Kildare Sun in the 4:40 at Ripon.

Thoughts for the weekend

A bad day's betting today, perhaps stemming from the fact that I don't have the time to do my research properly. I spoke to Pete in the morning - he thought Polar Circle had a great chance but he was concerned about her temperament. He said Declaration of War (Newm 4:40) also goes well, but currently isn't quite the calibre of the likes of Polar Circle. He runs against Rimrock, the first 2yo to come out of Noseda's yard this year. Rimrock is sure to be fancied and may have the edge - it feels like a straight forecast.

I also had a good chat with Brian. I don't think Adam Eterno will be winning tomorrow. Captain Hurricane could surprise - I couldn't recommend a bet on him but I'll be backing him just in case. I'm happy with the way Major Eazy and Lord Peter Flint are progressing.

Shepherds Warning, the filly I claimed last week at Thirsk, has settled in with Nicky Vaughan at Michael Owen's new stable. Her name has been causing amusement in journalistic circles given some of the recent comments by Freddie Shepherd, the Newcastle chairman, about his star striker. There may be a piece in the Guardian tomorrow.

No big betting fancies, but I may go small on some. At Newmarket Eden Rock (2:25) appeals from a stable that had a poor year last year and may be picking up a little now. Galient (3:35) I'll give another chance to. At Newbury Peeress tries to win the Lockinge for the second year running - I had my biggest win of 2006 on her in this race and I'll back her again. Later on (4:45) Diamond Diva comes out and I'll be looking to recoup the money I lost on her last week, perhaps with a little interest. Tom Dascombe runs Magic Glade in the 4:45 at Thirsk, and he gives him a good chance. A small bet only for me, perhaps with a place bet alongside.

Roll on the Derby

Authorized was stunning today and it's going to take a very good one to lower his colours in the Derby. In the end I decided to back him, and the result was never in doubt - he could be a very special horse.

No runners today but a couple on Saturday - Adam Eterno and Captain Hurricane are both declared at Newbury and will probably run. Neither have obvious chances.

It's a good day's racing, but I'm busy for most of the day and I won't be getting too involved. Pete is 1 from 1 with his 2yos, and he brings out Polar Circle in the 1:55 at Newbury - I don't know how good she is but I'll be watching. Ballinteni runs in the 2.15 at York. He won on good ground last time - I think he'll prefer the softer ground and he can go in again. Non Compliant can improve for his first run and win the 3.40 at Newmarket. The Composer may be worth a small each-way in Newbury's 4:05. Zomerlust can run well in the 4.25 at York. I like Welcome Approach in the 9:10 at Hamilton if the ground comes up G/F, but that looks unlikely and the bet may have to wait.

Less is more

Dante day dawns, and with it some excellent racing, but for the most part I think I'll be spectator rather than speculator. In the Middleton the highly touted Anna Pavlova takes centre stage and a strong run appears expected. In the Dante Authorized makes his seasonal bow amid high expectation - I know Pete thinks the world of the horse, although I haven't heard anything recently. I couldn't oppose either of these, but I'd need convincing to come in at short odds, so I'll probably just watch.

The race I like is the one with the least evidence to go on. There are two in the 3:50 that were expensive and bred to be fast and early - Nawaaff and Captain Gerrard - and if they deliver to expectation they should have the race between them. Nawaaff will have been cherry picked from the powerful Channon string for this, and will no doubt have strong support. Smart has yet to have his first 2yo winner this year, but he has a lot of ammo waiting to come out. CG looks primed and from a smaller stable he may have less support. I'll back Captain Gerrard to win and I may do a reverse forecast on the two.

I'll be watching a few at Salisbury. Party in the Park should win the first but I'll probably just watch. Moon Empress should go close in the 2:55, but a place bet feels the best option. Le Singe Noir may turn out to be the value in the 4:35 from a stable that is bang in form.

Bridesmaid again

Shawhill showed again what a game filly she is without getting her head in front. The ground was totally different to anything she had encountered to date, but she dealt with it well. She blew a lot more than last time and she's due a rest. I've had a chat with Tom - we'll give her longer breaks between races now but go for better races. I'm hoping she'll progress into her fourth year and I want to give her every chance to get there fit and well.

At the HIT in October last year we (the Comic Strip Heroes) sold a couple of 2yos. One of them was called Billy Dane - he is now with Richard Fahey and he comes out tomorrow at York. It's the policy of the CSH to sell at the end of the 2yo year, but I didn't want to see Billy go and I regretted it afterwards. He had an unlucky time as a 2yo - he should have won more than he did and is lower in the handicap than he should be. He is an uncomplicated horse with a good attitude, and room to fill out and improve as a 3yo. Fahey is an excellent trainer - he's given Billy a good long rest. I'll be watching with interest - Billy is a big price (33/1 with BF as I write) suggesting a win is unlikely but I'll be having a small bet all the same.

The Duke of Yorks is an excellent looking race this year, and I fancy a few of the 4yos coming through will go well. In particular there is a lot of hype about Amadeus Wolf - Kevin Ryan has been talking him up and the conditions look very much in his favour. He didn't collect once as a 3yo - I'll be backing him to get his 4yo year going with a win.

New Recruit

I claimed a filly called Shepherd's Warning from Thirsk on Saturday night - the first time I have ever claimed a 2yo. She will be trained by Nicky Vaughan, who is training at Michael Owen's yard - they will have their first runner in the next few weeks. Nicky reports her to be "sweet and good natured, but very light". She'll have a bit of a rest now - I'll own her jointly with Tony Calvin who is a Betfair spokesman.

Shawhill runs tonight at Windsor and I give her a decent chance. The one I most feared, Coyote Creek, is a non-runner. Sir Mark runs the likely favourite, Red Petal, who is the only other filly in the race. There are a whole host of unexposed types who could be very well in, although none hold any revealing entries. Shawhill has put on quite a lot of weight during the short time she has been at Tom's, and he says she is still as fit as she can be - she may have progressed a fair bit. We don't know but we think she'll prefer the softer ground to the G/F she's been running on recently. All in all I'm pretty hopeful.

I've had a look at the remainder of today's racing, and there is nothing I would want to have a bet on.

A long week

The end of a long week. King's Head didn't win, but after the rain I didn't expect him to and I didn't have a penny on him - for some reason he was heavily punted. Crimson Monarch didn't stay. Ger Butler proved that he is very much in form, winning Highland Legacy's race with a 20-1 shot and landing a big gamble with Maysarah.

I'm going to have the weekend off betting - I may try and claim one later in the day but otherwise I'm keeping the computer turned off. Shawhill runs on Monday night and I'll be going along to that - she's put on a fair bit of weight in the last few weeks which is very positive but it could be a tough race to win.

King's Head

King's Head goes to Wincanton tonight to try to open his account over hurdles. We took him back to the flat last time, but there were technical reasons for doing that - if he had won a hurdle before May 1 (the beginning of the new jumps year) he would have lost his novice status, and that lasts for the whole year. He's fit and in good shape. If the rain gets into the ground it will damage his chances - if not he'll be a good bet.

The first and fourth in Shawhill's last race at Windsor come out today, and I'll be backing them both. Crimson Monarch goes at Nottingham in the 3:00. He had no luck in running and would have finished a lot closer last time. The stable is in form and Jimmy Fortune is an excellent pilot. The extra distance is a concern as breeding suggests it would be a stretch, but at least he should be fully fit after a couple of competitive runs. Highland Legacy goes at Hamilton in the 7:20. He's up 6lb for the Windsor run, but goes up another 3lb afterwards. He has a decent claimer on board. The Windsor run was the best time of the day, unlike Sonara's at Pontefract which was the worst.

I like Maysarah in the 7:50 at Hamilton, although the suggested price in the RP (6/4) is disappointing. Gerard Butler's stable is clearly firing but he's getting a lot more seconds than winners - I just put that down to bad luck.

I'll be having a very small bet on Litalia in the Ormonde as I'm slightly intrigued. I haven't asked Pete about her but it seems possible that she could have improved a lot for the move to his stable.

Showing form

Another winner for the string and my betting form is still very solid. Prince Ary won easily and posted the best time of the night - he finished tired but he appeared to stay the slightly longer distance. Hernando Royal was a well backed and easy winner.

The bet that got away was Potentiale in the last at Beverley, who I had a look at before deciding to pass. Trained and owned by John Hills (presumably he is looking to sell the horse) who is running into a bit of form, this 55 rated outsider was travelling a long way to run in a 0-55 over what looked to be the right distance. Now with hindsight it feels like it was an obvious bet.

I saw John at Ascot last week and stopped off for a quick chat - he was looking very well. At the time he hadn't had any winners on the turf but his season seems to have taken off since, and I'm watching his entries. He has three going at Goodwood today. I Predict a Riot I'll pass on as I'd be taking a view on Manbar. Murrumbidgee looks sure to go well and I think is worth a small bet. The standout for me is Diamond Diva in the 4.20, who looks worthy of more serious consideration.

Apparently a late developing 2yo (came out in September) DD was highly tried and performed well in her first two races before picking up an easy maiden. She ran a bit green but should be less so now - John treats his better 2yos more tenderly than some and I imagine DD has room to progress from her current mark. She looks like the class horse in this field - most of the oppo look average by comparison - and I rate her a strong bet.

Spirit of Sharjah impressed me when he saw off Major Eazy at Newmarket, and he comes out in the 3.10 at Goodwood. I don't see anything else of his apparent quality in this race and I would expect him to win this comfortably, although the ground is a possible concern.

The old pro Goodbye Mr Bond might be worth a look in the last at Ayr this evening.

Ratings

Winker Watson, recently top of the Racing Post 2yo ratings with 92 has slipped to fourth - Major Eazy is joint seventh on 88. Achilles of Troy tops the list with 100. Call me a pedant but I don't like the name - Achilles was Greek and he fought against the Trojans, not with them.

Shawhill has been raised from 67 to 72 for her second at Windsor - she'll probably come out at Windsor again next Monday. Prince Ary heads up to Kelso for the 7.40 tomorrow evening - I won't be going up to support him but he ought to have an excellent chance.

Decent racing at Chester tomorrow, but I can't see anything I want to back. At Beverley some of the shorter priced horses look solid - Market Forces, Fong's Gazelle and Cuppacocoa ought to go well enough - although I'm not a favourite backer on the whole. I may have a bet on Hernando Royal in the 8.50 at Kempton - he's a big, slow maturing type who should be coming into himself around now and the stable is moving along nicely.

Daily Double

Tight for time today. I haven't got any runners today, and not much later in the week. I was very impressed with Achilles of Troy yesterday - Winker Watson may go head to head with him in the Coventry which looks like a decent challenge.

I've gone through the cards, and hard to find anything compelling to bet on. Amanda Perrett has three interesting entries - Nosferatu and John Terry at Windsor and Welsh Cake at Warwick. I would have bid for Nosferatu in the October HIT but he was pulled out of the sale and I think he was retained - I guess it's negative that they (Lady Clague) tried to sell him but positive that they changed their minds. He's lightly raced - it may mean he's lightly trained and will need the run so I'll pass, but he's a lovely horse. Welsh Cake has a great chance but the price is on the short side - Tom Dascombe runs the (badly drawn) Miss Wedge in the same race and I may have a few pence on her.

John Terry has run his best races fresh and might be the one to go with. He's been gelded since last season, and this may benefit him as he's thrown races in the past through lack of focus. It's an interesting race, and includes Ballinteni, an ex Godolphin horse who went through the February sales and ended up with David Simcock, a trainer I like. I was at that sale and I checked Ballinteni out - he had a deformed foot and some other problems, but he clearly has talent and it will be interesting to see what Simcock can make of him. I'll stick with JT though as he's a decent price.

In the 3.40 at Warwick I like Chiff Chaff. Michael Bell is at his best with these staying types and Chiff Chaff looks like a progressive type who will stay the distance nicely.

1,000 Guineas

No luck in the 2,000, in fact quite an annoying result. I backed Cockney Rebel twice last year, losing out both times - it's one of those occasions where I often have a saver for sanity's sake, but this time I didn't. It's the 1,000 today, but I won't be having a bet. I think the favourite will go extremely well and is probably the one to be on, but I don't have any reason to assume I have an edge.

In my years at Betfair I've gone through long periods when I haven't bet at all - I'm off betting far more often than on. I'm very much on at the moment - I've had a bit more time and I've been betting in good form, so I'm happy to carry it on. Doing this blog probably makes me bet more as I need to find things to say. I've been through tomorrow's card and I'll be backing a few, but probably not at Newmarket.

Salisbury is a course I've done very well on over the years.

In the first I like Prince of Delphi, a full brother to Acclamation. As a 4yo with only two runs he must have had a few problems, but he was well supported both times. He won't be as green now as he was as a 3yo - his stable is in good form and he's up against a favourite who is a perpetual bridesmaid.

Flying Indian runs in the 2.55. Andrew Balding tipped this horse up at a poker night I attended recently - she ran reasonably well behind Winker Watson at a big price. The third and fifth from that race run at Newmarket - I'll watch them but I won't be backing them. I'll back Flying Indian as I think she'll come on a ton for that run.

I've been following Amanda Perrett as I think her stable is in better form than it's been for the last couple of years, and some of her horses can be expected to show significant progression. I was thinking about Night Crescendo in the first at Newmarket, an interesting spare ride for Mick Kinane, but decided to pass on that. More interesting is Intiquilla in the 4.05. This half sister to Bandama would be crying out for the extra distance on breeding, and could have been running on unsuitably soft ground at the back end of last year. Her two runs in Oct/Nov are valuable experience, but not necessarily a proper indication of her ability. I suspect she'll be an altogether different horse now.

Finally in the 4.40 I'm keen on Peppertree. James Fanshawe often boots his older horses in first time up, and there are strong indications that Peppertree is both ready and able. She is entered in the Group 2 Henry II stakes at Sandown at the end of this month - that's a pretty bold entry for a horse with a meagre rating of 85. It's an expensive race to go for - there is a £5k entry stage on May 23 - and it would be very tight to fit another race in before then. I would think that Peppertree has to win tomorrow to justify taking part. Fanshawe had a nice winner in Cesare the other day and plenty of his have been running well - Peppertree may be the solution to quite a difficult race.

2000 Guineas

Captain Hurricane only beat a couple home, but I was happy with the run. He didn't settle for the first couple of furlongs and he was well out the back. He showed he still retains ability and maybe one day he'll win another race.

It's the 2,000 Guineas today and I think it's a strong renewal. There is enormous confidence behind a number of them. I've decided to side with Diamond Tycoon who I know Brian has a big opinion of.

I may have some small bets elsewhere. The Derby trial at Newmarket may prove to be a serious race with a few hype horses running - I'll side with Salford Mill. I'll have a small bet on Fullandby in the 4:00. I'll take Bustan at Thirsk and River Thames and Bold Abbott at Goodwood.

Eazy Rider

Major Eazy finished fourth after Jamie Spencer found trouble in running. We were pretty happy after the race - when the Major saw daylight he shot through, and if he had had a clear run earlier we think he would have won. He'll probably go for the National stakes now.

Captain Hurricane runs on Friday - we think he'll need the run and it is a fact finding mission as much as anything else.

The good the bad and the ugly

Three runs down and a mix of results. Master of the Race ran poorly – we were expecting a strong showing but he was never in the hunt. He finished lame but it looks fairly minor. I’m disappointed but not entirely surprised – he’s looks to be a bit of a rogue and I shouldn’t have trusted him. Thunderbolt Jaxon ran badly and again I’m disappointed. I was expecting a lot better – Pete thought he had progressed a fair bit from his last run but there was no evidence of that.

Shawhill didn’t win (another silver medal for my collection) but I was over the moon with her run. The time was excellent and again she showed what a good attitude she has to racing. It felt like a significant step forward from her claimer win – the front three pulled nicely clear of the rest and it was comfortably the best time of the day.

Timeform gave her a rating of 75 for the run taking the view that most of the field ran badly - the Racing Post seem to take a similar view rating the winner 74. I don’t agree with that – you can get some pretty serious racehorses in these 3yo Windsor handicaps. The winner was well backed early, is entered in the Derby and is supposedly working well with some of the stable's leading lights. I'll be backing him next time and I'll also back the third and fourth. Dansimar finished down the field having had trouble in running - she goes at Pontefract tomorrow and I'll be having an interest there.

I tried to claim a filly called Sous Kai Mango in the 2.30 at Saint-Cloud today. She was in for E21,000 - I bid E25,500 but there were nine claims put in and she went for E31,000.

Major Eazy runs tomorrow at Ascot. He will improve enormously for his last run - whether that's enough to win what will be a very competitive race remains to be seen. Fingers crossed.