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King's Head gets his ground

King's Head goes today at Huntingdon, and he could be a real value bet. The ground is key for him. Last time he ran the rains came and ruined his chances - he gets another chance today on ground that he will appreciate. The firmer the ground the better his chances - the first races should give an indication.

There are a few this afternoon that may tempt me in. At the short priced end of the scale I like Fitzroy Crossing and Conwyn Bay at Ayr and Scarlett Heart at Lingfield. I may back Miss Wedge at Lingfield - she's clearly able but she doesn't look to be the most genuine and she might be one to trade back in running. The 5:20 at Ayr is a challenging race, and I think there is a lot to like about Apache Nation.

Disappointment

It was another very disappointing display from Thunderbolt Jaxon, and it highlights the folly of persevering with horses who don't do it on the track. There's no question that TJ has speed and some level of ability, but he's not showing it and his runs if anything are getting worse.

Pete has another 2yo running today, and I suspect he will keep his 100% record in tact. Western Art is not one of the leading lights, but he is decent and straightforward and should be up to winning a Leicester maiden. Mick Channon has one that is apparently fancied - Hatta Fort - and since he's provided the second to all of Pete's 2yo winners so far he can do so again.

There's not a lot else I like. I may have a bet on Wild Fell Hall in the last at Leicester - I think he'll go ok although I'm not convinced about the trip.

Thunderbolt

Mon Michel was pulled out on Sunday as we were unhappy about the ground. It was getting firmer by the hour and we didn't want to risk him on it. He'll probably come out on either Wednesday or Saturday.

Thunderbolt Jaxon goes tonight at Wolverhampton in what looks a pretty low grade race. He goes well on the home gallops but has been disappointing on the course. If the penny ever drops with him he still has the ability to make a decent horse - we'll try to make more of him today by pushing him on earlier. He'd be worth a bet at the right price.

I'll be backing Coyote Creek today in the 4.30 at Bath. This one ran behind Shawhill at Windsor last time in what I had down as a typically strong Windsor 3yo handicap. Ed Vaughan is an up and coming young trainer training alongside Henry Cecil at Warren Place. He's highly rated by those I know a Newmarket although he doesn't have many horses yet. CC doesn't have a great draw and there are still a few questions to be answered - he's not a max bet for me but at the right price he'd be a decent one.

Mon Michel

Adam Eterno ran a stinker, coming stone last. Kerrin McEvoy said he "ran green" - maybe so but for now I'm assuming that he's pretty useless, which I can live with as I was assuming that anyway and the other two with Brian are looking decent. All things considered Captain Hurricane ran ok - a step forward in his rehabilitation. Declaration of War won his maiden, which is great news given I have two unraced 2yos with Pete.

Mon Michel runs at Fakenham today. He's capable of winning the race in a canter, but he is a tricky ride on a small field. I still think he'll win and I'll be backing him, but he's not one for the mortgage money. I may also have a small bet on Kildare Sun in the 4:40 at Ripon.

Thoughts for the weekend

A bad day's betting today, perhaps stemming from the fact that I don't have the time to do my research properly. I spoke to Pete in the morning - he thought Polar Circle had a great chance but he was concerned about her temperament. He said Declaration of War (Newm 4:40) also goes well, but currently isn't quite the calibre of the likes of Polar Circle. He runs against Rimrock, the first 2yo to come out of Noseda's yard this year. Rimrock is sure to be fancied and may have the edge - it feels like a straight forecast.

I also had a good chat with Brian. I don't think Adam Eterno will be winning tomorrow. Captain Hurricane could surprise - I couldn't recommend a bet on him but I'll be backing him just in case. I'm happy with the way Major Eazy and Lord Peter Flint are progressing.

Shepherds Warning, the filly I claimed last week at Thirsk, has settled in with Nicky Vaughan at Michael Owen's new stable. Her name has been causing amusement in journalistic circles given some of the recent comments by Freddie Shepherd, the Newcastle chairman, about his star striker. There may be a piece in the Guardian tomorrow.

No big betting fancies, but I may go small on some. At Newmarket Eden Rock (2:25) appeals from a stable that had a poor year last year and may be picking up a little now. Galient (3:35) I'll give another chance to. At Newbury Peeress tries to win the Lockinge for the second year running - I had my biggest win of 2006 on her in this race and I'll back her again. Later on (4:45) Diamond Diva comes out and I'll be looking to recoup the money I lost on her last week, perhaps with a little interest. Tom Dascombe runs Magic Glade in the 4:45 at Thirsk, and he gives him a good chance. A small bet only for me, perhaps with a place bet alongside.

Roll on the Derby

Authorized was stunning today and it's going to take a very good one to lower his colours in the Derby. In the end I decided to back him, and the result was never in doubt - he could be a very special horse.

No runners today but a couple on Saturday - Adam Eterno and Captain Hurricane are both declared at Newbury and will probably run. Neither have obvious chances.

It's a good day's racing, but I'm busy for most of the day and I won't be getting too involved. Pete is 1 from 1 with his 2yos, and he brings out Polar Circle in the 1:55 at Newbury - I don't know how good she is but I'll be watching. Ballinteni runs in the 2.15 at York. He won on good ground last time - I think he'll prefer the softer ground and he can go in again. Non Compliant can improve for his first run and win the 3.40 at Newmarket. The Composer may be worth a small each-way in Newbury's 4:05. Zomerlust can run well in the 4.25 at York. I like Welcome Approach in the 9:10 at Hamilton if the ground comes up G/F, but that looks unlikely and the bet may have to wait.

Less is more

Dante day dawns, and with it some excellent racing, but for the most part I think I'll be spectator rather than speculator. In the Middleton the highly touted Anna Pavlova takes centre stage and a strong run appears expected. In the Dante Authorized makes his seasonal bow amid high expectation - I know Pete thinks the world of the horse, although I haven't heard anything recently. I couldn't oppose either of these, but I'd need convincing to come in at short odds, so I'll probably just watch.

The race I like is the one with the least evidence to go on. There are two in the 3:50 that were expensive and bred to be fast and early - Nawaaff and Captain Gerrard - and if they deliver to expectation they should have the race between them. Nawaaff will have been cherry picked from the powerful Channon string for this, and will no doubt have strong support. Smart has yet to have his first 2yo winner this year, but he has a lot of ammo waiting to come out. CG looks primed and from a smaller stable he may have less support. I'll back Captain Gerrard to win and I may do a reverse forecast on the two.

I'll be watching a few at Salisbury. Party in the Park should win the first but I'll probably just watch. Moon Empress should go close in the 2:55, but a place bet feels the best option. Le Singe Noir may turn out to be the value in the 4:35 from a stable that is bang in form.

Bridesmaid again

Shawhill showed again what a game filly she is without getting her head in front. The ground was totally different to anything she had encountered to date, but she dealt with it well. She blew a lot more than last time and she's due a rest. I've had a chat with Tom - we'll give her longer breaks between races now but go for better races. I'm hoping she'll progress into her fourth year and I want to give her every chance to get there fit and well.

At the HIT in October last year we (the Comic Strip Heroes) sold a couple of 2yos. One of them was called Billy Dane - he is now with Richard Fahey and he comes out tomorrow at York. It's the policy of the CSH to sell at the end of the 2yo year, but I didn't want to see Billy go and I regretted it afterwards. He had an unlucky time as a 2yo - he should have won more than he did and is lower in the handicap than he should be. He is an uncomplicated horse with a good attitude, and room to fill out and improve as a 3yo. Fahey is an excellent trainer - he's given Billy a good long rest. I'll be watching with interest - Billy is a big price (33/1 with BF as I write) suggesting a win is unlikely but I'll be having a small bet all the same.

The Duke of Yorks is an excellent looking race this year, and I fancy a few of the 4yos coming through will go well. In particular there is a lot of hype about Amadeus Wolf - Kevin Ryan has been talking him up and the conditions look very much in his favour. He didn't collect once as a 3yo - I'll be backing him to get his 4yo year going with a win.

New Recruit

I claimed a filly called Shepherd's Warning from Thirsk on Saturday night - the first time I have ever claimed a 2yo. She will be trained by Nicky Vaughan, who is training at Michael Owen's yard - they will have their first runner in the next few weeks. Nicky reports her to be "sweet and good natured, but very light". She'll have a bit of a rest now - I'll own her jointly with Tony Calvin who is a Betfair spokesman.

Shawhill runs tonight at Windsor and I give her a decent chance. The one I most feared, Coyote Creek, is a non-runner. Sir Mark runs the likely favourite, Red Petal, who is the only other filly in the race. There are a whole host of unexposed types who could be very well in, although none hold any revealing entries. Shawhill has put on quite a lot of weight during the short time she has been at Tom's, and he says she is still as fit as she can be - she may have progressed a fair bit. We don't know but we think she'll prefer the softer ground to the G/F she's been running on recently. All in all I'm pretty hopeful.

I've had a look at the remainder of today's racing, and there is nothing I would want to have a bet on.

A long week

The end of a long week. King's Head didn't win, but after the rain I didn't expect him to and I didn't have a penny on him - for some reason he was heavily punted. Crimson Monarch didn't stay. Ger Butler proved that he is very much in form, winning Highland Legacy's race with a 20-1 shot and landing a big gamble with Maysarah.

I'm going to have the weekend off betting - I may try and claim one later in the day but otherwise I'm keeping the computer turned off. Shawhill runs on Monday night and I'll be going along to that - she's put on a fair bit of weight in the last few weeks which is very positive but it could be a tough race to win.

King's Head

King's Head goes to Wincanton tonight to try to open his account over hurdles. We took him back to the flat last time, but there were technical reasons for doing that - if he had won a hurdle before May 1 (the beginning of the new jumps year) he would have lost his novice status, and that lasts for the whole year. He's fit and in good shape. If the rain gets into the ground it will damage his chances - if not he'll be a good bet.

The first and fourth in Shawhill's last race at Windsor come out today, and I'll be backing them both. Crimson Monarch goes at Nottingham in the 3:00. He had no luck in running and would have finished a lot closer last time. The stable is in form and Jimmy Fortune is an excellent pilot. The extra distance is a concern as breeding suggests it would be a stretch, but at least he should be fully fit after a couple of competitive runs. Highland Legacy goes at Hamilton in the 7:20. He's up 6lb for the Windsor run, but goes up another 3lb afterwards. He has a decent claimer on board. The Windsor run was the best time of the day, unlike Sonara's at Pontefract which was the worst.

I like Maysarah in the 7:50 at Hamilton, although the suggested price in the RP (6/4) is disappointing. Gerard Butler's stable is clearly firing but he's getting a lot more seconds than winners - I just put that down to bad luck.

I'll be having a very small bet on Litalia in the Ormonde as I'm slightly intrigued. I haven't asked Pete about her but it seems possible that she could have improved a lot for the move to his stable.

Showing form

Another winner for the string and my betting form is still very solid. Prince Ary won easily and posted the best time of the night - he finished tired but he appeared to stay the slightly longer distance. Hernando Royal was a well backed and easy winner.

The bet that got away was Potentiale in the last at Beverley, who I had a look at before deciding to pass. Trained and owned by John Hills (presumably he is looking to sell the horse) who is running into a bit of form, this 55 rated outsider was travelling a long way to run in a 0-55 over what looked to be the right distance. Now with hindsight it feels like it was an obvious bet.

I saw John at Ascot last week and stopped off for a quick chat - he was looking very well. At the time he hadn't had any winners on the turf but his season seems to have taken off since, and I'm watching his entries. He has three going at Goodwood today. I Predict a Riot I'll pass on as I'd be taking a view on Manbar. Murrumbidgee looks sure to go well and I think is worth a small bet. The standout for me is Diamond Diva in the 4.20, who looks worthy of more serious consideration.

Apparently a late developing 2yo (came out in September) DD was highly tried and performed well in her first two races before picking up an easy maiden. She ran a bit green but should be less so now - John treats his better 2yos more tenderly than some and I imagine DD has room to progress from her current mark. She looks like the class horse in this field - most of the oppo look average by comparison - and I rate her a strong bet.

Spirit of Sharjah impressed me when he saw off Major Eazy at Newmarket, and he comes out in the 3.10 at Goodwood. I don't see anything else of his apparent quality in this race and I would expect him to win this comfortably, although the ground is a possible concern.

The old pro Goodbye Mr Bond might be worth a look in the last at Ayr this evening.

Ratings

Winker Watson, recently top of the Racing Post 2yo ratings with 92 has slipped to fourth - Major Eazy is joint seventh on 88. Achilles of Troy tops the list with 100. Call me a pedant but I don't like the name - Achilles was Greek and he fought against the Trojans, not with them.

Shawhill has been raised from 67 to 72 for her second at Windsor - she'll probably come out at Windsor again next Monday. Prince Ary heads up to Kelso for the 7.40 tomorrow evening - I won't be going up to support him but he ought to have an excellent chance.

Decent racing at Chester tomorrow, but I can't see anything I want to back. At Beverley some of the shorter priced horses look solid - Market Forces, Fong's Gazelle and Cuppacocoa ought to go well enough - although I'm not a favourite backer on the whole. I may have a bet on Hernando Royal in the 8.50 at Kempton - he's a big, slow maturing type who should be coming into himself around now and the stable is moving along nicely.

Daily Double

Tight for time today. I haven't got any runners today, and not much later in the week. I was very impressed with Achilles of Troy yesterday - Winker Watson may go head to head with him in the Coventry which looks like a decent challenge.

I've gone through the cards, and hard to find anything compelling to bet on. Amanda Perrett has three interesting entries - Nosferatu and John Terry at Windsor and Welsh Cake at Warwick. I would have bid for Nosferatu in the October HIT but he was pulled out of the sale and I think he was retained - I guess it's negative that they (Lady Clague) tried to sell him but positive that they changed their minds. He's lightly raced - it may mean he's lightly trained and will need the run so I'll pass, but he's a lovely horse. Welsh Cake has a great chance but the price is on the short side - Tom Dascombe runs the (badly drawn) Miss Wedge in the same race and I may have a few pence on her.

John Terry has run his best races fresh and might be the one to go with. He's been gelded since last season, and this may benefit him as he's thrown races in the past through lack of focus. It's an interesting race, and includes Ballinteni, an ex Godolphin horse who went through the February sales and ended up with David Simcock, a trainer I like. I was at that sale and I checked Ballinteni out - he had a deformed foot and some other problems, but he clearly has talent and it will be interesting to see what Simcock can make of him. I'll stick with JT though as he's a decent price.

In the 3.40 at Warwick I like Chiff Chaff. Michael Bell is at his best with these staying types and Chiff Chaff looks like a progressive type who will stay the distance nicely.

1,000 Guineas

No luck in the 2,000, in fact quite an annoying result. I backed Cockney Rebel twice last year, losing out both times - it's one of those occasions where I often have a saver for sanity's sake, but this time I didn't. It's the 1,000 today, but I won't be having a bet. I think the favourite will go extremely well and is probably the one to be on, but I don't have any reason to assume I have an edge.

In my years at Betfair I've gone through long periods when I haven't bet at all - I'm off betting far more often than on. I'm very much on at the moment - I've had a bit more time and I've been betting in good form, so I'm happy to carry it on. Doing this blog probably makes me bet more as I need to find things to say. I've been through tomorrow's card and I'll be backing a few, but probably not at Newmarket.

Salisbury is a course I've done very well on over the years.

In the first I like Prince of Delphi, a full brother to Acclamation. As a 4yo with only two runs he must have had a few problems, but he was well supported both times. He won't be as green now as he was as a 3yo - his stable is in good form and he's up against a favourite who is a perpetual bridesmaid.

Flying Indian runs in the 2.55. Andrew Balding tipped this horse up at a poker night I attended recently - she ran reasonably well behind Winker Watson at a big price. The third and fifth from that race run at Newmarket - I'll watch them but I won't be backing them. I'll back Flying Indian as I think she'll come on a ton for that run.

I've been following Amanda Perrett as I think her stable is in better form than it's been for the last couple of years, and some of her horses can be expected to show significant progression. I was thinking about Night Crescendo in the first at Newmarket, an interesting spare ride for Mick Kinane, but decided to pass on that. More interesting is Intiquilla in the 4.05. This half sister to Bandama would be crying out for the extra distance on breeding, and could have been running on unsuitably soft ground at the back end of last year. Her two runs in Oct/Nov are valuable experience, but not necessarily a proper indication of her ability. I suspect she'll be an altogether different horse now.

Finally in the 4.40 I'm keen on Peppertree. James Fanshawe often boots his older horses in first time up, and there are strong indications that Peppertree is both ready and able. She is entered in the Group 2 Henry II stakes at Sandown at the end of this month - that's a pretty bold entry for a horse with a meagre rating of 85. It's an expensive race to go for - there is a £5k entry stage on May 23 - and it would be very tight to fit another race in before then. I would think that Peppertree has to win tomorrow to justify taking part. Fanshawe had a nice winner in Cesare the other day and plenty of his have been running well - Peppertree may be the solution to quite a difficult race.

2000 Guineas

Captain Hurricane only beat a couple home, but I was happy with the run. He didn't settle for the first couple of furlongs and he was well out the back. He showed he still retains ability and maybe one day he'll win another race.

It's the 2,000 Guineas today and I think it's a strong renewal. There is enormous confidence behind a number of them. I've decided to side with Diamond Tycoon who I know Brian has a big opinion of.

I may have some small bets elsewhere. The Derby trial at Newmarket may prove to be a serious race with a few hype horses running - I'll side with Salford Mill. I'll have a small bet on Fullandby in the 4:00. I'll take Bustan at Thirsk and River Thames and Bold Abbott at Goodwood.

Eazy Rider

Major Eazy finished fourth after Jamie Spencer found trouble in running. We were pretty happy after the race - when the Major saw daylight he shot through, and if he had had a clear run earlier we think he would have won. He'll probably go for the National stakes now.

Captain Hurricane runs on Friday - we think he'll need the run and it is a fact finding mission as much as anything else.

The good the bad and the ugly

Three runs down and a mix of results. Master of the Race ran poorly – we were expecting a strong showing but he was never in the hunt. He finished lame but it looks fairly minor. I’m disappointed but not entirely surprised – he’s looks to be a bit of a rogue and I shouldn’t have trusted him. Thunderbolt Jaxon ran badly and again I’m disappointed. I was expecting a lot better – Pete thought he had progressed a fair bit from his last run but there was no evidence of that.

Shawhill didn’t win (another silver medal for my collection) but I was over the moon with her run. The time was excellent and again she showed what a good attitude she has to racing. It felt like a significant step forward from her claimer win – the front three pulled nicely clear of the rest and it was comfortably the best time of the day.

Timeform gave her a rating of 75 for the run taking the view that most of the field ran badly - the Racing Post seem to take a similar view rating the winner 74. I don’t agree with that – you can get some pretty serious racehorses in these 3yo Windsor handicaps. The winner was well backed early, is entered in the Derby and is supposedly working well with some of the stable's leading lights. I'll be backing him next time and I'll also back the third and fourth. Dansimar finished down the field having had trouble in running - she goes at Pontefract tomorrow and I'll be having an interest there.

I tried to claim a filly called Sous Kai Mango in the 2.30 at Saint-Cloud today. She was in for E21,000 - I bid E25,500 but there were nine claims put in and she went for E31,000.

Major Eazy runs tomorrow at Ascot. He will improve enormously for his last run - whether that's enough to win what will be a very competitive race remains to be seen. Fingers crossed.

Hotting up

Mick and I went down to Lambourn early on Thursday to catch up with a few trainers.

We started with Tom Dascombe, and watched all four horses in light work. Conservation has recovered from the gelding operation and also from an accident he had on the horse walker - he's still a while away from a run though. Master of the Race is in good heart and comes out in a couple of days. He's been a bit disappointing but his form is improving and he has a nice handicap mark - we'll be looking for a win from him. Baldovina is looking better than she was when I claimed her, but she hasn't grown or filled out much which is a bit disappointing. I'm hoping she'll do better over longer distances - she'll come out around June time. Shawhill hasn't been in the yard for long and Tom's just kept her ticking over - we'll find out a bit more about her on Monday. I had a good chat with Tom. I watched Bold Diktator work - Tom quite fancied him for Saturday with AP on board.

Next stop was Barry Hills, although he was away at an auction. I had my first look at Effingham, and I was really taken by him. He's a real bull of a horse with a bulky physique and as thick a neck as I've seen on a young horse. He is also well behaved and friendly, which is a big plus - unfortunately he has a sore shin and won't be out for a while. He should make a 2yo though. I had a good look around the Hills yard - well run and tidy.

On to Whatcombe and Paul Cole. The whole Cole family were there and I stuck around for a while. I had a look at Ollie Fliptrik - a nice looking horse by Essence of Dubai. He's a short while away from a run - I don't know a lot about him at the moment. I looked at a few other horses and we went into the house to watch some racing. I had a bet on News of the Day, a horse running at Beverley that had finished second to my horse, Shawhill. He was narrowly beaten. We then watched a claimer from Longchamp - I rang my man on the course, and after a bit of debate we put a claim in for the horse that came second. I bid a fair bit above the minimum but I was outbid.

I headed back to the office to get some work in - in the evening I went up to town to captain the Betfair team in the Moorcroft sports quiz at the Landmark hotel. We were the holders and we scraped home again, just beating the Racing Post team. I stuck around gossiping until late and didn't get home until the early hours.

I had a busy day on Friday, packing as much work as I could into the early part of the day before heading off to Sandown to meet with a few people. I backed Yeaman's Hall, a tip Andrew Balding gave out at the poker night a week ago, and that won at a decent price. I was busy all day Saturday and I realised later I had missed a couple of opportunities - Bold Diktator which Tom had fancied and New Seeker which Alex Cole had told me was working well. I spent time going through the French claimers but still no joy there.

I have a lot of entries this week, and there should be winners there. Shawhill goes tomorrow night and I'll find out a bit about her. Tuesday marks the beginning of the new jumps year, and any horse that was worried about losing its novice status can come out again. A couple of my novice hurdlers may line up at Wincanton - Master of the Race and possibly King's Head. Both should have decent chances. Thunderbolt Jaxon goes to Southwell, and a decent run is expected there - he's improved since his last run. On Wednesday Major Eazy may go at Ascot, and he should be a lot better for his first run - we will find out how good he is. On Friday we may see the long awaited return of our group winning horse Captain Hurricane. I'll feel quite emotional to see him on the course again - he probably won't be one to have a bet on for now. There are other entries, including some for Mon Michel and Prince Ary. It should be an interesting week.

Lying low

It's looking like King's Head won't run at Punchestown now, and I've decided not to travel over - I'm feeling a bit travel weary a the moment and it's nice to have a quiet week.

My good betting form is continuing - I had a decent bet on Fong's Gazelle last night. He beat Shawhill last time up - I claimed Shawhill in her next run and we think a lot of her. Backing horses that have previously beat the fancied ones of my horses has been quite a good plan this season.

I'm just having one bet today - Monkerhostin in the Gold Cup at Punchestown. He may have hit form and looks as if he's one of the few horses in the race that will appreciate the good ground.

Back to earth

It was a bad day on Saturday - I had four bets, one of which won at around 16-1 (Bustan at Thirsk) but still finished well down on the day as I had such a big bet on Dutch Art. I made some amends today by having a chunky bet on Missis Potts who had impressed me when she beat Prince Ary in a race I was expecting us to win. Prince Ary himself came second earlier in the day - I had a small bet on him for sanity's sake but that was bad discipline and I should have left alone.

Pete was upbeat after the Greenham, suggesting it could be very different in the Guineas. I'm not inclined to give Dutch Art another chance - I think he's a top class horse and I've no doubt he can improve, but Major Cadeaux beat him fair and square and can also come on for the run. The 2000 Guineas could be a classy race this year - at this stage I'm inclined to side with Major Cadeaux as the value at 6-1.

It looks like it's going to be a fairly quiet week runner wise. King's Head may well go to Punchestown, and if he does could be my only runner of the week. If the ground is right (good or better) he could go well enough - Artadi franked the form of his one hurdle race today and Gary thinks a lot of the horse. I'll probably go over - Betfair do a lot of entertaining at Punchestown and I could catch up with the Irish team.

Update

I had a long chat with Pete this morning. Winker recovered from the race extremely well. He's a very uncomplicated horse and appears to be a true professional - we will probably go straight to Ascot with him now. Lord Snooty will come out in two or three weeks, either at Newmarket or Windsor - he wouldn't want it too firm. I asked about Dutch Art - he will improve for the run but is a top class animal and should win. I'm having a proper bet on him.

I spoke to David Pipe. Prince Ary will go tomorrow and we'll take our chances against Artadi. I doubt I'll have a bet in the race. I asked DP about his other runners today. He didn't think there were any clear betting propositions - he thought Raslan was his most interesting runner but was up against a horse of Jonjo's that was difficult to assess. I like Raslan - I may have a little bet.

I've been trying to get through to Gary Moore but his mobile's been off all morning. I note he runs Altilhar in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Gary loves the horse but this is a big ask - he's a backable price and I may well have a go. Brian runs Admiral's Cruise at Newbury, a horse he's always had a big opinion of. I'll be watching out for him, but I'm not sure Brian's horses have really come to hand yet - I'll leave it until later to decide whether I'm having a bet.

Winker breaks the spell

A winner at last! It's a real relief, and it was great to be back in the winner's enclosure again. I'd had 24 runs since my last winner, with 8 seconds, 4 thirds and 3 fourths - I was beginning to think I was cursed.

I got to the course early and I had the chance of a good look at him. He'd come on a mile physically from when I last went up to see him - I couldn't pick any holes in him conformationally and I thought he was the pick of the paddock. From what I'd been told and from what I know of Pete I thought he was as close to a certainty as he could be - I'd expected him to be odds on but his price went the other way and he touched 3-1 on Betfair. I had a large bet - he won very easily.

I had a couple of other bets on the day, including one on Phoenix Tower of Henry Cecil's which won at a nice price. I think Henry may finally be properly back in business - I plan to have a horse or two with him one day. I had two nice winners from three bets yesterday, and in two days I've managed to square off most of my losses of what had been a pretty bad year to date.

I'm hoping to have a few 2yos at Ascot this year and Winker is among the best of them - he could turn out to be the best. If all goes well he may go for the National Stakes at Sandown and then go to Royal Ascot, or he may just go straight to Ascot. We think he'll be better over 6f than 5f.

Prince Ary is down to run at Wincanton on Sunday - if he goes he probably just has Artadi to beat. I have a big opinion of Artadi though. He trounced King's Head two runs ago, and he then ran very badly against Mon Michel at Ascot. I asked Paul Nicholls about that run - he said it came too soon and should be ignored. We have a tough race on. King's Head is declared at Punchestown in what may cut up to be a very weak grade 1 juvenile - we may stand our ground and if we do I may go over. Mon Michel is currently targetting the Chester Cup - despite his failure to win in our colours I retain all my bullishness here. He can go on and become a serious racehorse. Some of the others may come out soon, but no declarations at the moment.

The Winker Cometh

I travelled up to Newmarket to watch Major Eazy run and arrived forty minutes before the race - I met up with Jeremy, who with his brother Ed are the co-owners. The horse looked pretty well in the pre-parade ring - fairly lean and very calm. Richard Perham joined us - he said that he'd been riding Spirit of Sharjah on the gallops and he was special. We met up with Brian and went into the ring - surprisingly we were favourite. We think a lot of the horse but Brian's 2yos don't normally win first time up - the price was so short that I didn't back him.

We came third, beaten fairly convincingly by Spirit of Sharjah. Richard Hughes was pretty upbeat - he thought it was a decent race and the time was less than a minute. He will improve a huge amount for the run - whether he can improve enough to justify a tilt at one of the Ascot races remains to be seen, and his second race is critical.

I went for a drink with a French guy called Marc-Antoine who I am using to look at French claimers. We've looked at a number but haven't made any claims yet - I'm hoping to pick up a few horses this way in the coming weeks. Marc-Antoine told me that he claimed 44 horses for clients last year, and 2 of them went on to win stakes races - the standard of French claimers, particularly at the Paris tracks, looks a little higher than in the UK.

Later on Jeremy and I wandered up to the Owners and Trainers bar for a cup of tea. There was an old guy on the table next to us - he looked about 80 - accompanied by a good looking buxom blonde, perhaps in her twenties. We were wondering if it was Sir Robert Ogden (I'm pretty sure it wasn't) who owns Sander Camillo, a horse he named after his young Brazilian girlfriend who has since been replaced by another young Brazilian girlfriend. Good luck to him - unfortunately his filly came second on the day.

The vet's report for Shawhill is through, and it's pretty good. Some minor niggles, skin and coat can be improved, weak with a lack of muscle tone which is a positive. I'm confident that she will turn out to be a good buy.

Vicky Coren won the poker tournament and collected a £12k cheque.

Winker Watson comes out tomorrow in the first at Newbury. He's a proper racehorse and we're expecting a big run. Andrew Balding played in the poker tournament on Monday - he said he thought his horse, Flying Indian, would run well at a big price.

A few to watch

No runners today, but I'll be watching a few. Brian runs two in the first at Warwick, and it should give a good indication of how forward his 2yos are - ours runs tomorrow. Later on in the 4.30 Pagano makes his debut for Alan King. I went to the sales intending to bid for this horse, but decided against it - he was quite pricy and we thought there were signs that he could develop the odd problem over time. He was a nice horse though and could run well for King - I'll be thinking about having a bet.

Still searching

12 days on from my last post and still no winners. Kings Head ran well to come fourth - the trip was probably to long and we'll drop him back. Master of the Race also did well in coming third at a big price. He'll get a handicap now and should be able to pick up a small race, but he's not looking like the star of the string at the moment. Prince Ary ran on Saturday, coming second. He made a mess of the second last and blew his chance - he was probably booked for second anyway.

I had a nice Easter break with the family, and kept away from the racetrack. On Wednesday night after work I travelled up to Aintree for the National meeting. We sponsored a few races and we were doing a fair bit of hospitality - our box was buzzing with a mix of racing people, press, big punters with one or two celebs thrown in. John McCririck spent all three days in the box - he is Channel 4 and Aintree is covered by the BBC, so he was of duty TV wise. He's quite quiet and ponderous away from the cameras. We had some footballers along - we had hoped Michael Owen would come, but he had to be on duty at Newcastle. He is very interested in horses and is opening a stable. I managed to find a few winners, but no luck in the National. I finished slightly down on the week.

I claimed a filly called Shawhill today in the 3-05 at Windsor. Mick flagged her a week ago - she had shown reasonable form but still looked very immature and looked as if she could fill out and improve a fair bit. I had a bet on her in the race - she won and I collected, not enough to buy her but a decent percentage of the price. We put the claim in - there were four claims but we were drawn out of the hat. She cost £17k.

There were two horses claimed in the race - Shawhill who had cost £1250 and Dr Fab who had cost £136,500 - more than a hundred times as much. I'd rather have a cheap horse which has surprised than an expensive horse which has disappointed. I'm very positive about it, but await the vet's report with a little trepidation as it looks as if she may not stand up to a lot of training. The previous owners have a website, and they say about the claim;

As we run in this races this is one of the drawbacks, but how long will she stay sound!

She will go to Tom Dascombe - the vet will check her out on Wednesday.

I've just got back from a charity poker tournament that Betfair were sponsoring. It was a good fun event. I started out sandwiched between Sam Torrance and Teddy Sheringham. Sam is very jovial and jokey. Teddy was quieter and was concentrating on his game - I lost a big hand against him. I had A3 of spades and the flop came down SK, S10, D2. Teddy bet and I called. The turn was H7 and he went all in - after a bit of soul searching I called. He had AQ and ended up winning with an Ace high. I didn't think much of it, but a friend criticised my play later - he said I should have gone all in after the flop. Of course he is right - it probably wouldn't have made any difference but I might have seen him off at that point. I was moved to another table with Victoria Coren and Clare Balding. I played OK for a while - I went out chasing a straight later in the evening.

I've got a few entries this week. Major Eazy will probably run on Wednesday - should go well, sure to improve for the run but could nevertheless win first time of asking. Winker Watson goes on Friday at Newbury, and should go well. Mon Michel may come out fairly soon - Gary had wanted to put him away but we may look to run him again now.

Catching up

I've been very busy lately - a lot to write about but not enough time to write it. I don't seem to be able to update this blog from work due to firewall issues which makes matters worse.

I went to Milan ten days ago - I had lunch at San Siro one day and watched a few trotting races. It was an eye opener - I don't think trotting is for me but I did manage to break my losing run and back a 10/1 winner. The stadium was virtually empty - not that surprising as Tuesday lunchtime trotting has never been a crowd puller (I am told) as it is more for the betting shops than anything else, but horse racing is on the decline in Italy.

I flew back on Thursday and in the evening I went to the sport industry awards, where David Beckham picked up the main prize. He made a very engaging speech. On Friday I bought three horse paintings at auction - I'm trying to get a collection going. I went to Ascot on Saturday where Mon Michel was running. I flew out to Malta on Tuesday, and in the afternoon Thunderbolt Jaxon ran at Folkestone. Both horses came second. Ho hum.

I got back last night, and today I drove down to Paul Nicholls' yard to present the connections of Kauto Star their cheque for winning the Betfair million. I got there an hour early and took the chance of a good look around - it was a glorious day and it's a beautiful stable. I went to see all the stable stars, taking particular interest in Kauto Star and Denman. Clive Smith and Ruby Walsh arrived - we did a photo shoot and headed off to the pub for a long lunch. I've had tougher days.

King's Head probably runs on Saturday at Kempton, switching back to the flat. Master of the Race is declared at Plumpton on Sunday and may run. Major Eazy is declared at Bath on Wednesday and will be my first 2yo runner of this season if he stands his ground.

I've tried and failed to buy a number of horses recently, and three of those have run in the last couple of weeks with two of them winning. It's an interesting extra insight that comes with the buying - if a horse checked out but we were unable to get him it's probably a sign that he is a decent animal and is worth following. My betting luck seems to be changing - I've had a couple of good days recently. Maybe my fortunes as an owner are about to tick up - I certainly hope so.

Bridesmaid again

I went to Ascot on Saturday to watch Mon Michel run - I took a box and invited a few mates along. MM was in the first race - Rodger arrived at the box fairly early, and he was unhappy about the jockey bookings.

Jamie Moore normally rides MM on the home gallops, and often MM works with Altilhar. Both horses were in the race, and Jamie had chosen to ride Altilhar. Jamie has the right to choose whatever horse he likes, but it was a blow to lose him - MM is not the easiest of rides and there was a lot of value in him having his regular pilot. We had targetted this race a long way out and missed Cheltenham whereas Altilhar was coming here opportunistically having come second at Cheltenham. Rodger has supported the stable and Jamie for many years, and is probably the biggest owner there by value.

The race came and we headed down to the ring. Chocolate Thornton took the ride - we had a short chat but didn't over egg the instructions. MM looked better than ever in the ring - he's developing into a great looking horse. He was a bit keen early but that is normal and he settled ok - as they came away from the second last Thornton was still motionless and looked to have the race at his mercy, but Jamie came upsides on Altilhar at the last. The two of them fought out the finish, with Altilhar just prevailing and MM getting his third consecutive second place.

After the race Gary looked mortified - he came over and said how sorry he was. I smiled and said that was the breaks, but he carried on apologising. Jamie didn't look too happy either. Rodger was clearly upset - to lose out to Jamie by a very short margin in a driving finish was the worst possible outcome.

I sloped off quietly back to my box to reflect. Altilhar had come second at Cheltenham, and Gary had been highly critical of the ride that Noel Fehily had given him. Jamie had missed Cheltenham through a ban, and no doubt felt very guilty that he had not been able to ride Altilhar as he may have cost the owner a Cheltenham winner. He'd have been keen to make amends and would have felt a strong obligation to take the ride this time around.

I believe MM is a very good horse - he was beaten in receipt of a lot of weight, but I don't think that this is very relevant. He travels incredibly well, but once he hits the front he can idle a little. He needs the race to go his way if he is to win, and it is more likely that he will get the right factors going for him in a competitive handicap than a weak maiden.

Ascot Saturday

Mon Michel runs in what is a very competitive juvenile on Saturday - Robert Thornton takes the ride. He's been disappointing thus far, well beaten into second on his last two starts, but he is good on the gallops and my feeling is that he is weighted to pick up a big handicap if and when it comes right for him. Jamie Moore prefers to ride Altihar in the race - I don't blame him but we get 20lb off Altihar and we would give him 20lb if it were a flat race, so it is a 40lb swing. I think we're the better prospect in a competitive handicap even if we have been a bit disappointing on the course so far.

Still luckless

King's Head was beaten fair and square by a decent looking animal. Prince Ary ran a stinker today and finished with quite a nasty cut on his leg. I've now had five second places and a couple of thirds since my last winner - roll on the flat season.

Going from bad to worse

I was spectacularly bad today - all my fancied horses finished unplaced and the only horse I laid won. Not much to be said about that.

King's Head goes tomorrow. He'd like it a little firmer but he should go ok - I spoke to Gary today and he said that the horse works like a good 'un and is as good as he can get him. I'm hopeful, but I won't be going. I'll have him in a double with Christdalo in the 3.40.

Update

I've rung around my various trainers to see if I could turn up anything.

Nick Gifford has five going at Newbury today. I asked him about Latimer's Place in the 2.25. The horse is getting on a bit. The ground is key (he needs it good) and he has that. He's getting a bit old though and can sulk when pushed along - Nick thinks he may be better value in a smaller field now. I also spoke to David Pipe who runs two in this race (and six over the day). I asked him if I should be backing any of his today and he said no (he fancied one tomorrow).

The only horse Nick felt was a betting proposition was Witness Run in the 4.35 - "will love the better ground, should win". Gary Moore runs Pardishar in the same race - I've been on the phone to him and he isn't tipping anything today.

I've had a good look at Master of the Race's race, and it really does look like a strong heat. Special Envoy, seventh in the Supreme Novice, is the favourite, but I'd be surprised if there isn't one better than him in this and I rate him a lay. Another Bottle and Sentry Duty had big ratings on the flat - Lead On has been extremely impressive. I am hearing very strong vibes for Sentry Duty in particular, and I think this Henderson trained horse is the one to be on. MOTR is worth a small bet for a place IMO.

I asked Tom about Bold Diktator in the 5.20 at Lingfield. BD appeared to be disappointing last time, but he was struck into about 3 furlongs from home and finished lame and missing a shoe. If you ignore that race he should probably be favourite today - Tom rates him as a bet and thinks he is a virtual certainty to place.

I also spoke to Peter C-H about Morning Farewell in the 4.50 at Lingfield. Pete reckons he has improved enormously since he came second last time - he is up against a Johnstone horse who we are told is very strongly fancied and has been backed heavily this morning, into odds on. Pete's view is "bring it on" - I'm happy to be taking on a debutante with an experienced improver.

There's a yankee in there somewhere - Witness Run, Sentry Duty, Bold Diktator, Morning Farewell. E/W double - Bold Diktator & MOTR. Win double Witness Run & Morning Farewell.

Racecourse Action

At last a decent period of action on the horse front - I have runners on each of the next three days.

Master of the Race goes on Saturday at Newbury in what looks to be a red hot novice. I had a long chat with Tom about him this morning - Tom was expecting a big run from him last time but he was disappointing. If his poor last run can be put down to the ground then he can go well today - Tom likes the horse a lot. This does look like an unusually strong novice though, and a win feels like a real longshot. He may be one for a place bet.

Nick Gifford has five runners at Newbury including Latimer's Place, a horse in decent form who Nick believes still has a decent handicap in him. I'll call Nick tomorrow morning - if he has anything interesting to say I'll update the blog.

On Sunday Kings Head comes out at Taunton. He's been great on the gallops and we've been waiting for the ground. For him it would have to be good or better. He should run well but it's too early to know if he will be value for a bet.

On Monday Prince Ary comes out at Plumpton. It's looking as if most of the quality oppo in his race will not run so he could have an easy task on. He is targeting Aintree (as is KH) - he really has to win here to earn his chance. He is in top form.

Cold Turkey

With Cheltenham now over I now have to honour my promise to my wife and give up smoking. I've been smoking solidly for 25 years so this may not be easy - still there's nothing like a good challenge. Fortunately there are two others in Betfair who are giving up - Josh Apiafi and Martin Cruddace. Josh and Martin will be excellent soulmates in my quest, and they are such reliable guys that I know they will see it through - this is a good thing as since giving up I have become incredibly short tempered and I wouldn't be able to forgive them if they went back to smoking again.

My terrible run of punting has continued - I didn't lose much on Thunderbolt Jaxon as the price was too short, but I've had a couple of largeish losing bets since. I can see myself becoming reckless without the fags to slow me down - either that or I'm going to get fat again.

With the weather clearing up I ought to get a few more runners out. I have a whole host of entries for the next couple of weeks, and there should be some action at some point. Prince Ary, Master of the Race and Mon Michel should all be out soon, and all should be better on the better ground. King's Head will debut soon, and he really needs it Good to Firm - he has an entry on Sunday. I have 1/3 of a new horse with Nick Gifford - a French bred recruit from the Irish point to point circuit called Ours - and he may debut for us soon. The 2yos are warming up and some will be out early.

I've been reading about Jim Devine, the Scottish MP who is claiming in Parliament that Betfair is a disreputable business. Devine, who succeeded Robin Cook, appears inexpert and has made statements that I am extremely uncomfortable with. His predecessor was fully expert and was a man I had come to know and respect. I would comment further but it is a company matter and not really appropriate for my blog.

The final curtain

Cheltenham drew to a close and I faced the horrible realisation that for the first time in my life I have gone through the meeting without finding a single winner. I didn't bet in as many races as I normally do due to time constraints and I twice had the heartbreak of seeing my horse jump the last in a comfortable lead only to be reeled in. Still it was a depressing performance.

The days when I had the time to spend hours poring through form are behind me, but even if I did I'm not sure I have the same enthusiasm as there are so many other thoughts that occupy my mind now. In the old days I could spend hours going through form and nothing could distract me. I can't do that now and it shows.

I had to drive up from home today having picked up our dog late last night - I left late and ran into serious traffic problems, and I didn't get to our box until after the second race. I meet a lot of sporting personalities in my job and it doesn't generally affect me, but there are one or two people I will always be in awe of. Sir Peter O'Sullevan is one such person, and he was in our box when I arrived - I've met him briefly a couple of times before. To my surprise he recognised me and came over for a chat. He is an amazing man - at the age of 92 his hearing isn't what it once was but his mind is as strong as ever. I felt humble in his company.

Kauto Star won the big one, and Clive collects his million pounds from us. He came into the Betfair tent a short while after the race, carrying the Gold Cup and with an enormous entourage. I felt emotional for him and had a brief chat - we did some photos on the stage and he left. It was a great race - Kauto had his customary last fence blunder and Exotic Dancer would have run him a lot closer had he had less traffic problems.

I stuck around to chat to a few punters and lose a bit more money. Nick Gifford had told me in the morning that he quite liked his horse Diego Cao at Fakenham - he came second at 25-1 after a few traffic problems.

Tomorrow Thunderbolt Jaxon finally makes his debut - I won't be going as I have too much on. The early tissues had him in at a big price and had me excited, but he's looking like opening at around 2.7 which is not a get rich price. I'm expecting a big run in what looks like an average race.

Last Chance Saloon

A busy day yesterday. Still no luck betting and heavily down for the week. I left early and drove over to Bimingham to pick up a puppy, then drove back home. I'll make my way back to Cheltenham this morning for the final leg.

I'll take Degas Art to win the Triumph today, with a saver on Parrain. I'm on ante post on both - I may also have a little on Liberate. I'll have a small bet on Joaaci in the 2.35 in the hope that he can return to form. In the Gold Cup I may have a little on Idle Talk for a place just to have something to follow, but I'll be watching it for Kauto Star to see if he can win the million. In the get out stakes I'll have a go on Crow Wood who could win on his best form and will prefer the ground to recent runs.

Update from the course

I'm in the Betfair tent now listening too all the gossip. The World Hurdle is the big one and I've heard a few views. BJK is not proving popular with the experts I've spoken to. Mighty Man seems to be the big Timeform fancy and there are a lot of good reasons to like him. I've been more influenced by Sean Boyce who thinks that Kasbah Bliss is the one to be on. I really like this horse, but I would have thought he'd have wanted it softer - Sean doesn't think so. He's a price and I may have a man's bet on him.

Paul Kealy thinks Adamant Approach is the bet for the last despite the fact that he is a 13 year old. Rodger Sargent likes Tikram as he may prefer this ground to his recent runs and is in good form. AP McCoy is doing 10-3 on Moncadou which is a weight he virtually never does - this is a tip in itself and Thierry Doumen has shown that he can train. I may have to go in on that one as well.

So it is looking as if I'll be backing two French horses today for a father and son double. I'll probably leave the remainder as I have a busy day planned.

It was a typically busy day at the course yesterday. I got there early and went to the Betfair marquee. We had a betting panel of four giving their views to our guests.

Harry Findlay, part owner of Denman, appeared impromptu in the box and got onto the stage - he spent about 15 minutes explaining why he thought Denman should be a 4/7 shot and not the 2/1 that was being offered. He left to rapturous applause - the marquee is full of big punters and Harry is the perfect speaker. I'm glad he won his bet.

Later I went to our box for lunch, and had a good chat with Clive Smith, owner of another Nicholls hotpot, Kauto Star. Clive is a really nice guy - softly spoken and friendly. He couldn't be any more different to Harry, who is also a nice guy but isn't backward in coming forward. If Kauto wins tomorrow we have to give Clive a £1 million bonus.

I spent the rest of the day with punters, firstly in the marquee and later at the Queens Hotel. There was the normal amount of heavy drinking, but I was feeling a bit ropey and didn't touch a drop all day. I rarely drink these days - I don't seem to cope with it very well. I'm feeling a bit perkier this morning.

I only had one bet yesterday - Lord Of Illusion, who lead for a while but was never going well enough. The highlight today is Black Jack Ketchum in the World Hurdle. He's not been the same force this season, but my gut feel at this stage is that he will win. Monet's Garden is another favourite today that I like. I may have a bet on Reveillez who I backed last year - the ground may do the trick for him.

Day 2

Not a great start to the week. I ended up with two large bets - one on Distant Thunder and one on Straw Bear.

The Bear was going like a good 'un when he burst a blood vessel - he trotted in after the race with blood pouring from his nose. I was with Nick in the early afternoon and I said I'd call him after the race but I left it - he will be devastated.

Distant Thunder ran a great race - he traded 1.11 in running and looked like the winner everywhere but the line, when suddenly he came third. The rest of my selections did nothing.

The most interesting aspect of the day yesterday was the ground. The race times clearly indicated that it was good ground, despite the official verdict of soft/good to soft. They are calling it good to soft today, but it is probably pretty decent ground. The ground has been heavy across the country for the last three months - this form can be thrown out the window. The better ground will bring the smaller flat bred types back into the picture.

I've less time today as I've got to get to the course. Some quick comments;

Race 1 - the Novice Hurdle. Aran Concerto is a banker for many. I'll pass, looking for better value - I'll go win and place on Imperial Commander from the Twiston-Davies yard, who may be very decent and may appreciate this ground more than some.

Race 2 - The Sun Alliance Chase. Harry Findlay will be looking for a big run from Denman, and not being the shy retiring type he may have a tilt at the ring. He's a lovely horses and has won 8 of his 9 starts, only meeting defeat at Cheltenham last year when outsped by Nicanor. There is a lot of quality up against him, including the talented Cailinn Alainn. I like Denman but can't bring myself to back him at the price - no bet for me.

Race 3 - The Queen Mother. Well Chief is back and is the third short priced favourite of the day. I love this horse and he may run a big race. I hope he wins, but for money I'll be taking him on with last year's winner, New Mill. Conditions are right for New Mill and he is sure to go well.

Race 4 - The Coral Cup. The normal massive entry, and no short priced favourite here - I'll have a bet for a bit of interest but no more. Rodger Sargent runs Dusky Warbler, who may go well. Nick Gifford told me yesterday that he quietly fancied Dusky Lord. There are some things in life that I just can't resist, and the Dusky forecast is one of those.

Race 5 - the Kim Muir. I don't normally like this race, but I'm a big fan of Lord of Illusion and I may have a decent bet on him. He seems to have lost his form but the ground has come right for him and maybe he can start out on the comeback trail.

Race 6 - the Champion Bumper. Not a race for me, although I have picked the winner many times over the years through luck rather than judgement. I'd favour the flat breds today on account of the ground - Cork All Star and Sergheyev are a couple of possibles.

Day 1

Well another disappointment today with Mon Michel, but no time to cry. Cheltenham beckons, so let's see if I can cut the mustard as a tipster.

Race 1 - The Supreme Novices

Well I hate to be dull but I just can't get away from Amaretto Rose. I have always liked progressive fillies, particularly those that mature late, and this is one such horse. It is impossible not to be impressed by what she has done so far. I may have a saver on Hobbs Hill, who looks a classy sort and is a price. I'll be watching Granit Jack, who carries the flag for John Hales - his daughter picks his horses for him and she's proved in the past what a good eye she has for this sort of thing.

Race 2 - The Arkle

A top class renewal and some here are sure to go on to greater things. Three vie for favouritism - Fair Along, My Way De Solzen and Don't Push It, and it's hard to knock the claims of any of these. In the search for a bit of value I'll go with Buena Vista, a great looking horse who is made for the chasing game. He has a bit to find, but he may still be progressive. He would probably prefer better ground and perhaps an extra furlong or two, but I'll take my chances.

Race 3 - The Champion Hurdle

I'm on Straw Bear ante-post and I'm sticking with him. The conditions are right - it's just a question of whether he is good enough. I spoke to Nick today - he says the horse is as good as he can get him and he's got his fingers crossed. He may be a few pounds short of the mark on form, but he has the able assistance of AP and could run a big race.

Race 4 - The William Hill Handicap Chase

There are two I like in this one. Commercial Flyer hardly inspires confidence having failed to finish in his last four starts, but this is a horse of significant potential. Distant Thunder has moved from Robert Alner to Noel Chance, and ran well for Chance before being put away, no doubt with this race in mind. I'll back both and do the forecast - marginal preference for Distant Thunder.

Race 5 - The Cross Country Chase

I'm no great fan of this race - it's hard to know how to assess it. I'll go with Enda Bolger's Spot Thedifference, but not with a lot of confidence.

Race 6 - the Fred Winter

A good race this. Gaspara is an obvious favourite and tries to collect the bonus - he is sure to run well. Pouvoir is a horse I like a lot, similarly Silver Jaro, Pancake and some others. It's a handicap though, and looking for a bit of value I'll side with Shazand. Eddie O'Grady seems to do inordinately well in Cheltenham handicaps, and this decent recruit from the flat could find a bit of improvement here.


I'll have a little at 16 on Timmy Murphy to win the jockeys championship - he is riding a number of my fancies.

Mon Michel

Just a quick one today as I'm tight for time. Mon Michel is running in he 3.00 at Plumpton - AP takes he ride as Jamie is currently off for a ban. He drifted a little this morning but he's still odds on. Anything other than a win will be a disappointment - he's been a little quirky in his races to date for us but I believe he retains all his ability and is a quality animal. He should be better for his most recent run. Whether he's value at the odds is another question - I think he is and I'll be backing him although I have some concerns in the back of my mind.

Calm before the storm

It's all a bit quiet in the lead up to Cheltenham, and not much to blog about. I'm very busy at work and fairly engaged in it all at the moment, so I haven't been following the racing. One of my syndicates is in the process of buying another horse for the jumps in Ireland, and I'll update on that if it goes through.

I'm going to Cheltenham for the whole week, and no doubt it will be the usual crazy beerfest. I preferred the old three day festival, and so did my liver - I don't think the extra races add much and it turns the week into a bit of a marathon. It should be fun though and there will be a few stories.

On my way home I am picking up a puppy - a black and white Newfoundland - which is a new venture for the Black family. My long suffering wife put up a lot of resistance on this, but I worked our girls up into such a frenzy about the idea that she had to give in. It's a big commitment but I'm sure we'll be ok. When Cheltenham is over I face the horrible prospect of giving up smoking - I decided a while ago that I would do this. I'm trying to roll back the years a little and find a bit more energy to deal with my busy life - I've recently lost three stone in weight and I go to the gym two or three days a week. It seems to be working - I feel a lot better than a did a year ago - and the smoking is hopefully the final piece of the puzzle.

I opened some fairly hairy option positions in the stock market in the early part of the week - the first time I've properly punted stocks for a couple of years. I see Bwin may be bidding for Sportingbet, which is interesting. It seems to make sense, although it gives would give Bwin US exposure that they have never had before. I'm wondering if the news will flush out another bidder.

Half full or half empty?

Mon Michel ran at Newbury on Friday, coming second. He looked like the winner two out but decided he wasn't going to put it in - he doesn't seem to be the most genuine at the moment. It's nice to have a half result, but he's better than that. He scoped clean after the race.

It's looking highly unlikely now that I will have a runner for Cheltenham. Mon Michel is still in the Triumph, but isn't looking good enough and in any case is unlikely to get in. Prince Ary will probably wait for better ground. King's Head is close to a run, but again needs it a lot firmer. There's a good chance that one or more of these will run at Aintree.

There was a bomb scare at Betfair today. Someone rang in and said a bomb would go off at an unspecified Betfair office, so we evacuated both of our offices in the UK. No bomb materialised, which I guess was no great surprise.

I grew up in Wimbledon and my family have historic ties with the football club. My great uncle was the chairman back in the sixties - he would have turned in his grave when they moved to Milton Keynes a few years back. AFC Wimbledon emerged to fill the vacant spot, and they have done Wimbledon proud with their efforts in the Rymans League.

AFC routinely have attendance figures close to 3,000, about ten times the average for their league. A week ago they were top of the league, but slipped to third today after a draw at home. This may change though - they face an 18 point deduction for fielding an unregistered player which is currently in appeal. It was nothing more than a minor oversight - the full story is summed up here;
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2007/02/27/is_afc_wimbledons_oversight_wo.html

This is not what sport is about. I hope the FA see sense and turn this around.

Busy Time

I'm very busy at work at the moment and I'm struggling to find time to look after my blog. Betfair radio launched on Monday - I did a guest slot and I'm doing another tomorrow. I like the team and it's entertaining. Being internet radio it has quite a time delay which is not ideal - we will try to find ways to reduce this.

On Monday night I went to a business conference in London staged by Ariadne Capital. I chatted to a winning owner of the Melbourne Cup, the CEO of Saxobank and the founder of a lingerie sales website (www.becheeky.com). There's nothing like a bit of variety. There was a panel discussion which was interesting - one of the panelists told us that the US economy is set to collapse under the weight of it's bond position with China and that the Euro is unsustainable and is sure to break up at some point. These are not cranky assertions - I've heard similar views from expert commentators before and I have my own opinions - but the subject of an imminent global economic collapse is not for my blog. I headed home in the early hours.

On Tuesday after work I headed up to Leeds and checked into a hotel - from there on Wednesday I made my way to Timeform house in Halifax for an early start. It was Timeform's 60th birthday, and Princess Anne was paying a visit - I had a short chat with her. She comes across as very straightforward and unaffected, and very switched on. I was surprised that she knew all about Betfair and had read about our acquisition of Timeform in the business pages. I shouldn't have been surprised - perhaps I'm hanging on to my childhood image of princesses as people who sit around in ivory towers having their toenails manicured all day, but that clearly isn't the case. I presented her with a cheque for the St. John Ambulance.

I stuck around for a while and had a good chat with Jim McGrath and Kieran Packman about horses and potential angles for finding success before heading home.

Mon Michel is down to run at Newbury on Friday, and I will go if I can find the time.

Embarrassment

Saturday was a disappointing day. Mon Michel was running at Kempton, and having given the matter some thought I concluded that at 14-1 he was an outstanding bet. I don’t normally proactively tip my horses, but I decided to share the good news. I rang my mother, my uncle and my sister and told them to have a good bet – I also rang one of my wife’s friends. It was Mrs Goggins’ birthday, and all of my in-laws came round for a small party – I shared the news with them and my brother-in-law headed off to the local bookies having collected money from everyone. I headed off to the racecourse, arriving 30 minutes before the race.

I met up with Rodger and Gary Moore – Jamie Moore joined us in the ring. There were two concerns about the race. Jamie felt that the horse liked it soft on the gallops but hadn’t liked it as much when it had been really heavy – the ground was reported as soft with heavy patches, and the early feedback was that it was pretty desperate. It was also apparent that every jockey in the race had been instructed to hang back early, and no-one was prepared to make the running – Jamie thought that when the tape came up they would all just stand there and wait, which was exactly what happened. Mon Michel didn’t settle in the early stages, but he got going after about three fences and for a while was looking as if he might run a race. At the third last he lifted his head and started to slow up – he trailed in a distant fifth of six.

Cheltenham looks out for him now – we have an entry for the Triumph but he is unlikely to get in and in any case we have to assume that he isn’t good enough at the moment. He may run on Friday at Newbury and he could run well, but I won’t be recommending him to anyone and I may not back him. I think he has ability but he might not be the most genuine and he may need better ground. I’ll be keeping my head down at family gatherings for a while.

Sunday was a quiet day. I was in a very reflective mood, thinking about the horses and a few things at work. I’m an obsessive thinker, and often I get so deep in thought that I don’t function properly otherwise and do odd things. My wife is used to it, and she refers to them as my “Bert moments” – I had a quality Bert moment on Sunday morning when I stopped at a green traffic light.

I was on my way to the dump – the car was piled high with boxes blocking my view in the rear view mirror, and I had the music on full blast. I sat there waiting for the lights to change, but it was a pelican crossing and it wasn’t going to happen. After a few minutes a load of cars started filing past me, and someone shouted out something rather rude – in my side mirror I could see about 15 cars lined up behind. I drove on to the dump with a red face.

I don’t enjoy looking like a fool, but it happens to me more than most and I’m pretty philosophical about it. One thing I see time and time again in my business life is people who won’t challenge or ask questions when they should because they’re worried it will show them up as ignorant. I never do this – I tend to say exactly what I think (always politely) – and although it sometimes lands me in sticky situations I think it’s the right long term policy. In a similar vein in life in general I’d rather be on the field than in the stands. It’s a combination of having to speculate to accumulate and learning from one’s mistakes – if you’re not in the mix then you won’t progress. This blog is a good example – I’m not sure I know why I’m doing it but it might take me somewhere interesting so I’ll give it a go to find out.

Commerce rules

I was disappointed to read today that Wimbledon have decided to award equal prize money to men and women, bowing to political pressure and bringing them in line with the other grand slams. It's a case of politics ahead of commercials, it's not a decision that can ever be reversed and it sets a dangerous precedent for other sports.

This is not to say that I blame the All England Club for taking the decision - human rights lobbyists wield a lot of power and can be bullies. The AE can't afford to be typecast as an old school bastion of British maleness - they have a business to run. The men’s and women’s at Wimbledon are rolled into one event, but there is a marketplace that exposes the value differential of the two tournaments. Debenture tickets for the women's final and semi finals days on the resale market go for around half of the men's equivalent. What will happen next - will the veterans and juniors be brought into line to avoid accusations of ageism?

The AE could change the "Gentlemen's singles" to the "Open singles", trying to win the argument that way - it would make the point, but it's too cute and would worsen matters. I think they should drop the "Gentlemen" bit regardless. There seems to be an implicit class distinction in it - are you not allowed in if you're not a gentleman?

I'm a firm believer in free market forces in sport - commerce rules. I have my own ideas on how Betfair should pay for horse racing. At the moment we pay a percentage of our overall horse racing commission take to a central horse racing body. In an ideal world I’d prefer us to be paying a percentage of our take for each horse race retrospectively into the purse for the race, a percentage direct to the host racecourse and a percentage to the central body. It would better align incentives. Racecourses are incented to serve up better racing fare for punters, and they have additional data to assist them in this. Owners and trainers have more incentive to go for competitive races rather than score facile wins at long odds on in poor betting heats, and also to promote betting interest in their own horses by sharing information. The central body still gets some cash to help finance their operation, and we have invested the rest of the money intelligently in their properties on their behalf.

As an idea it's too radical and unworkable, but there is a strong underlying principle. If we are paying a sport for content (on our own behalf and also on behalf of our customers) then we have a right to a say on how that money should be invested within the sport. We want to work collaboratively with sport to pursue our joint interests, but managing such processes is complex and difficult. If we can devise commercial structures that align incentives better then a lot of this may just take care of itself.


Enough of that and on to the important stuff. Mon Michel runs tomorrow, and it’s probably my last chance saloon for Cheltenham. He’s receiving 7lb from the principals – if he can’t beat them in receipt of that then he won’t beat them in the Triumph. The ground (soft at the moment) is in his favour, he’s had a lot of jumping practice and he’s going well. Fingers crossed for a result.

More frustration

Damn and blast. With Lingfield called off we lost a lot more than a day at the races - we lose the opportunity to give Mon Michel a prep race, but more significantly we can't go for the Fred Winter now as we won't have the required three races for a handicap mark in the bag by Saturday. We'll almost certainly still go for the Adonis, but it would have been nice to have seen him complete in a race beforehand.

We won't be the only ones who have had trouble finding races pre Cheltenham - there are any number of horses who have been waiting for better ground before they come out, and there simply hasn't been any. Some horses which are targetting Cheltenham but need good ground have had to come out and run in the soft simply because they need a run and the clock is ticking - others are still waiting, but time is running out.

One horse who has taken his time to make his NH debut is Lightning Strike, who comes out at Huntingdon tomorrow. Rodger and I tried to buy this horse at the HIT last October but he got very high, selling for £200k. We had our vet check him out and Jim McGrath at Timeform wrote me an analysis of the horse from what they knew. He's a genuine stayer, having been the only 3yo to run in the Cesarewitch last year. He's a good type physically and is sound, having run on all surfaces on the flat. He's been supported for the Triumph so he's probably working pretty well for Venetia Williams.

I have some doubts though. He had a long season last year - 11 races finishing in October - and he might be in need of a longer break. These real long distance types can be a bit slow when it comes to 2 mile hurdles (they don't build up the same momentum and speed in hurdle races as the hurdles slow them down), although perhaps Detroit City bucks this trend - this may go against him in the Triumph. Tomorrow's race is over 2m4f, which looks ideal - the soft ground looks a little less ideal though. I'm guessing that they'd prefer to run him on better ground but need to get him out now as Cheltenham is so close.

The odds on favourite, My Turn Now, is a year older and is conceding a stone. He's been a class act this year, winning four on the bounce on testing ground before falling at the last in the Tolworth when looking like a possible winner. His owners advertised him for sale the week before the Tolworth - a fair point to try and cash in, but it makes me wonder if they believe he has what it takes to progress from here. He lay on the ground for ten minutes after his fall, winded and probably exhausted - Charlie Mann reported no ill effects, but with six hurdle races this season already and a crashing fall like that I'd like to see him take a longer break. Classy though he is I'd struggle to back him at the prevailing 2-1 on over a distance 3f longer than he has ever run before.

I haven't spoken to Gary Moore about Shardakhan, but although he can't claim to be in the same class as the two principals he might be the value alternative for this particular race. He's solid and should be staying on at the end - Win and place for me.

The only other race I looked at was the mares race at 2.00, where I'm wondering if Philip Hobbs can work a little of his magic with Picacho. This ex John Dunlop filly has been very lightly raced, but with no major gaps - either she was still immature or perhaps is a little infirm somewhere. She went for £25k in the sale - about the right price given her 67 rating. She has the right breeding for the NH game and goes on the soft - Darren O'Dwyer takes 7lb off. This is a very weak race - I may get tempted in.

Exorcism required

I went to the “Sharp Edge Entrepreneurial Awards” last night. It’s a great honour to be nominated for awards but I have a real phobia about public speaking, and when I realised that all the winners were making short rousing speeches I started drinking hard and praying that we wouldn’t win. We won the main prize, and I shuffled up to collect the trophy amid loud cheering, or perhaps jeering, with lights flashing everywhere. I felt particularly embarrassed as I had left my shoes at home and was wearing trainers with my dinner jacket, but I managed to muster a smile and mumble a few words before making a sharp exit, cutting a rather shambolic figure.

The human psyche is an odd thing – I was once a good speaker, but I choked badly speaking at a business do a while back when I was under a lot of stress. I’ve never recovered my composure. Years ago, I was on a small plane that was caught in a big thunderstorm and I got into a real panic – I had trouble flying for a long time afterwards and I’m still nervy about it. Once in my youth I ate a bunch of daffodils for a bet and I was violently sick later – I couldn’t look at a daffodil for years without feeling ill.

I got home late and crashed into bed. My hangover was interrupted early by my excited six-year-old daughter who was clutching a beautifully crafted note covered in spangles and lace. It read “I’m sorry to hear that your tooth went down the plughole, but here’s a pound anyway. Always remember to clean your teeth. Love, the Tooth Fairy”. She told me she would remember this note for the rest of her life. As she skipped out of the bedroom I leant over and whispered to my wife “Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive”.

It’s another recent incident that has led me to wonder if my children are a bit weird, and to what degree I’m responsible. Three weeks ago my two year old son, Eddie, informed us that he was Mrs Goggins, a character from Postman Pat. This morning’s conversation was typical;

Me: Come on Eddie, time for breakfast.
Ed: (Steely glare) No Dad, I’m Mrs Goggins.
Me: Would you like some breakfast Mrs. Goggins?
Ed: (big grin) Yes Dad. Sank you very much.
Wife: (smiling) He’s sooo like his father.

Like his father? Why exactly?! OK, he’s not exactly Damien from the Omen but it’s worrying – I can see him having trouble with girls in later life if he doesn’t vanquish Mrs. Goggins from his soul. Anyone know a good exorcist?

Enough of this and onto the racing. Mon Michel lines up tomorrow at Lingfield, and I’m hoping to find time to go. It was a competitive looking maiden a couple of days ago but it's cut up small and may be a match between us and the Pipe horse, Polinamix.

Mon Michel was rated 102 on the flat and he was best on soft ground. He's been gelded and he recovered quickly, so we've had plenty of time to work on him. He should go well. The Pipe horse seems to have lost his way a bit, and he has to give us seven pounds. He has the benefit of McCoy on board, but it's asking a lot of him to give us the weight if we run anything close to our flat form and see the race out.

We will hopefully go on from this and run in the Adonis at Kempton on Saturday - it's the last date to get a handicap mark for Cheltenham. If it all goes well we can think about the Triumph - if not we will at least have a handicap and we have the option of the Fred Winter.

Better Together has sustained an injury and won't run again this season. Conservation also picked up an injury on the horse walker the other day, and we won't be able to get a run into him for six or so weeks. Given the way the timing has worked out we have decided to geld him now and get him out for a few flat runs later this year, where he has a handy mark. He will move from Nick Gifford to Tom Dascombe for the flat season - if all goes well we will take him back to Nick towards the end of the year.

Baldovina has had a clean rating from our vet and she has settled well into her new home. She has a decent frame, but weighs in very light at 410kg - we need to get a lot more meat onto her bones and we will take our time with her.

Another for the string

I got back from a weeks holiday on Dartmoor on Thursday night and didn't go into the office on Friday. It gave me a chance to catch up with the horses and hatch a few plans.

Straw Bear was down to run in the Kingwell hurdle, and he had the look of a banker about him. He's a real pro and looked sure to run a strong race - it was more or less a match with Afsoun, who is younger and less proven at this stage. Afsoun had run a big race last time on bottomless going - I follow horses that really handle the heavy and many of my biggest bets over the years have been on heavy ground days. I figured that Afsoun was probably a high class mudlark but a shade short of top class otherwise, and even if the analysis was wrong he was no certainty to reel in Straw Bear. The going at Wincanton was soft.

I'd expected Straw Bear to be a very short priced favourite, but the early tissues had Afsoun in as favourite with Straw Bear a shade of odds against. I probably only have two or three big bets a year these days as I'm rarely that confident about anything - I decided I was going to have my biggest ever bet. I had a few early punts and lost a bit of money, including one on Wee Robbie who came second at a big price. As the Kingwell approached the price was getting shorter and shorter - I'm price sensitive in these things and I didn't weigh in with as much as I had planned. The Bear won well - Afsoun goes into the notebook for the next time the ground really cuts up.

I've been planning to pick up a few horses in claimers this year, and Mick, my racing manager, studies all the claimers (in England and France) assiduously. Mick had highlighted the 4.25 at Lingfield as a possible - one of the fancied horses was a non-runner, but we were still interested in a filly called Baldovina.

Buying in claimers is tricky as there is no chance for a vet's exam - a lot has to be taken on trust. Mick spends time looking at pedigrees and tracking trainer performance to see who is weak, which trainers horses have historically done well for a move and which trainers seem to be badly suited by certain types of horses. Examining motives for sale is a big part of it - the other guy knows the horse better than we do and if he wants out it's a good reason not to want in.

Baldovina was trained by Marco Botti in Newmarket. Botti is no bum trainer - he's very much on the up and has recently moved stables to deal with an influx of top class horses. Tom Dascombe went to the track - he reported before the race on the appearance of the filly. She was a decent size (16 hands or so) but of fairly light build and looking light on bone. She looked as if she could fill out a fair bit. He had spoken to a former assistant at the Botti yard who said that he thought the horse was sound but not classy enough for the owner concerned.

There were several reasons for liking the horse. The pedigree was hard to decipher, but on balance it looked as if she would be better over further in time. Broodmare potential was hard to assess, but couldn't be entirely ruled out. As a filly she was a classier proposition than the colts in the race as she was racing off levels with the principals but had a right to an allowance. She was a very late foal (27th May) - converting to human terms she is about 16 1/2, whereas an early foal would be 18. This is quite a difference and its importance is IMO often underestimated.

Botti is a good trainer but Boldovina was one of his lesser lights, and he had recently moved stables which must have interrupted his routine. Weighing it all up we decided to go for it if she won the race - I had a decent bet on her to get something into the pot in that eventuality. It was only a five horse race, but Neil Callan found all sorts of trouble in running, getting locked out three times - she came third but we felt that with a clear run she may well have won. Tom spoke to Callan after the race - Callan said "that's as good as she is" suggesting that third place was the right result, but we decided to disregard this. Tom put the claim in (£17k) and we got the horse - it was a bit expensive as I had to pay for the horse and stomach the losing bet, but it was a good betting day on balance.

I should have runners this coming week. Mon Michel is down to run at Lingfield on Wednesday and we're hopeful - he has been working well with Nation State, who ran a good second today. Master of the Race is down to run on Tuesday, but unless the ground firms up is unlikely to score. Thunderbolt Jaxon was supposed to be running on Monday but has been taken out - I haven't spoken to Pete so I don't know why this is.

A long and fruitless day

I travelled up to Newmarket after work and checked into a hotel. I had an early start this morning at Pete Chapple-Hyam's where I was hoping to see a few of our horses work, but the weather got in the way. I spent a while there and had a good chat with Pete.

It's early days but I'm really excited about the 2yos we have with Pete. He cracks on with his 2yos pretty early, and although they haven't done any serious work yet he has a pretty good idea of how they are going to work out. Bouguereau (by Alhaarth) is the one I own outright - the only horse I own outright at the moment having sold Berkhamsted. I wasn't expecting him to be an early horse, but he is quite far forward and could do something this year. Winker Watson, by Piccolo, is coming on very nicely and should come out in May - he is looking very decent. Lord Snooty, by Traditionally and the cheapest of the three should be out early (perhaps April) and if he lives up to current expectation he could be very good - at this stage he is looking like the best of the group. They are all nice horses.

Thunderbolt Jaxon we had high hopes for last year - at the start of the season Pete rated him his joint second best prospect alongside Dutch Art - but things change. He was a long way forward but had recurrent and chronic sore shins and some other problems, and we weren't able to get a run into him. He hasn't grown a lot over the winter and won't be the same force as a 3yo that he might have been as a 2yo, but he could still be a decent horse. He's down to come out on the all-weather on the 19th of this month, and we'll take it from there. Johnny Alpha is another we once had high hopes for, but he has a big barrel like body putting pressure on his legs and he was impossible to keep sound, twice breaking bones in his feet among other problems. Pete is keeping him on as a work horse - he may come right one day but I won't be holding my breath.

I spoke to Pete about some of his other horses. Dutch Art and Authorized are the stable stars, having been the only 2yo G1 winners trained in the UK. Both horses are very well - Dutch Art is a likely runner in the Guineas but Authorized is more of a Derby type. Of the two Authorized looks the more interesting - Dutch Art is an exceptionally well formed and compact horse, whereas Authorized is still immature and needs filling out. He may have more room to progress.

From Pete's I headed down to Tattersalls, the first time I have ever been there. I met up with Tom Dascombe and our vet from Lambourn - she had arrived earlier and had checked out a number of horses. We had five horses on the shortlist and we checked them all out - the vet examined all of them, we had them all out for inspection and we rang around to find out what we could. High Command, a classy 4yo handicapper, had tendonitis and needed a year's rest. Pagana was fit for racing but could have scored better on the vet's exam and was going to be expensive. Sweetheart appealed on breeding as it suggested she would do better in time over longer distances and she got a good vets report. She was on the small side and my advisors thought she wasn't 'A' class broodmare stock, limiting her resell value. Cactus King was clean and well with ability, but hadn't been showing it on the track. We felt that a change of scenery might work for him, but he wasn't going to be cheap and looked short on stamina, limiting his value as a sale to National Hunt at the end of the year. Ballinteni had had a deformed foot - it had healed but his feet were unattractive. After a lot of discussion I decided to pass on all of them.

I met up with Tom Goff, the bloodstock agent who had bought the Chapple-Hyam horses for us - we talked about broodmares and how to value them. I also bumped into Alex Cole, Paul Cole's son - we have a 2yo with Paul. We've been trying to name this horse for ages - he is US bred and every time we settle on a name it is turned down by the US registrar. We finally got a name through this week - Ollie Fliptrik, which I like. He's been going through a growth spurt and we don't know a lot about him yet.

I introduced myself to Henry Cecil, having called him out once before to look at a horse in another sale. I chatted to him for a long time - he's very entertaining, appeared to have no hint of arrogance despite his long and successful career and has a load of stories to tell. He was interested in an unraced Juddmonte horse called Weather Front - having trained for Khaled Abdulla for many years he is well connected there. He had a buyer who was prepared to bid up to £20k - I thought the horse was worth more than that, and said that if the bidding went higher he could carry on for me up to £35k (giving the original buyer first refusal).

We looked at the horse - I thought he was perfect for the job. He was decent sized, staying bred with a nice swagger about him, but weak looking and perhaps a year away from maturity. Juddmonte have a decent entry in this sale every year, and many of them have gone on to be good horses. The NH market is really flying with big prices going through for the right staying types - Weather Front was on the button for a sale into this market at the end of the year and appealed as a value bet.

We were outbid in the ring with the horse going to an Irish NH buyer for £42k. Henry was disappointed as he didn't think he was value at that level. I was kicking myself on the way home - I've been following the NH market and I think he was the right horse to bid up for. I'm annoyed I didn't bid more.

All in all a fruitless but entertaining day, and I learnt a lot. I don't think I'm ever going to get to the point where I can assess a horse's potential on looks, but I don't think my task is to do that - the task for me is to assess the abilities of my advisors and contribute in the areas where I have a bit of expertise.

Cheltenham fancies

All quiet on the western front at the moment so time to run through a few of my early Cheltenham fancies.

David Pipe will go into Cheltenham with a lot of ammunition, and for now I'm looking at three of his. Buena Vista runs in the Arkle, and although he only just held on last time he is progressive and I know David likes him. Seven is My Number goes in the Champion Bumper - he's a very nice horse. Standin Obligation runs in the Sun Alliance Chase and could go well at a nice price.

I continue to believe that Degas Art is the one to be on in the Triumph, particularly if the ground comes up good or better. The handicap snip for the Fred Winter could be Chaninbar, who has been allotted an extremely generous mark of 114. Katchit, who beat him 1 3/4 lengths at the start of the season, is currently on 146 - Chaninbar has run poorly since then but I understand he has had problems which have since been dealt with. He could really be thrown in.

I'm sticking with Straw Bear for the Champion despite his defeat at the hands of Detroit City on the weekend. He was fairly beaten but Nick's horses haven't been running that well so I'm hoping there is still plenty of improvement to come.

I'm off to the sales at Newmarket tomorrow with a shortlist of horses to look at - I'll update my blog on my return.

Follow the Bear

BETTER TOGETHER ran well down the field at Chepstow - apparently he jumped ok and he looks to have come back alright. His day will come but it is probably a long way off.

Nick runs his "superstar" in the Agfa hurdle at Sandown tomorrow. There is no horse I have enjoyed watching on the gallops more than STRAW BEAR - he is big and muscular and powers up the hill like a machine. He's a biggish price for the Champion after his odds on failure in the Christmas Hurdle, but it's public knowledge that he wasn't well that day and the race should be disregarded. On all his other form he's there or therabouts on a par with Detroit City - he's ranked 1lb behind him in the official ratings. So why is Straw Bear 14/1 for the Champion whereas Detroit City is 100/30? He shouldn't be - Detroit City may turn out to be a wonder horse but Straw Bear, who is a year older but only made his hurdling debut in 2006, also has the right to improve. I've backed him for the Champion and I'll be backing him in the Agfa tomorrow.

I've been going through the catalogue for the February Tattersalls sale, but although the sale is still a week away I am already frustrated. Juddmonte had entered a group of unraced 3yos with staying pedigrees - they seem to do this every year. These horses have presumably been very slow to come to hand and may never be fast enough to make an impression on the flat in the UK - they are interesting potential trades to sell into the NH market in a year's time though. Unfortunately the two best looking prospects were withdrawn this morning, presumably having been sold privately. This is the way of things in the market at the moment - very few decent horses are getting to the ring, and what gets there goes for huge prices.