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www.bertsblog.co.uk
Friday, 25 May 2007
Wednesday, 23 May 2007
King's Head gets his ground
King's Head goes today at Huntingdon, and he could be a real value bet. The ground is key for him. Last time he ran the rains came and ruined his chances - he gets another chance today on ground that he will appreciate. The firmer the ground the better his chances - the first races should give an indication.
There are a few this afternoon that may tempt me in. At the short priced end of the scale I like Fitzroy Crossing and Conwyn Bay at Ayr and Scarlett Heart at Lingfield. I may back Miss Wedge at Lingfield - she's clearly able but she doesn't look to be the most genuine and she might be one to trade back in running. The 5:20 at Ayr is a challenging race, and I think there is a lot to like about Apache Nation.
There are a few this afternoon that may tempt me in. At the short priced end of the scale I like Fitzroy Crossing and Conwyn Bay at Ayr and Scarlett Heart at Lingfield. I may back Miss Wedge at Lingfield - she's clearly able but she doesn't look to be the most genuine and she might be one to trade back in running. The 5:20 at Ayr is a challenging race, and I think there is a lot to like about Apache Nation.
Tuesday, 22 May 2007
Disappointment
It was another very disappointing display from Thunderbolt Jaxon, and it highlights the folly of persevering with horses who don't do it on the track. There's no question that TJ has speed and some level of ability, but he's not showing it and his runs if anything are getting worse.
Pete has another 2yo running today, and I suspect he will keep his 100% record in tact. Western Art is not one of the leading lights, but he is decent and straightforward and should be up to winning a Leicester maiden. Mick Channon has one that is apparently fancied - Hatta Fort - and since he's provided the second to all of Pete's 2yo winners so far he can do so again.
There's not a lot else I like. I may have a bet on Wild Fell Hall in the last at Leicester - I think he'll go ok although I'm not convinced about the trip.
Pete has another 2yo running today, and I suspect he will keep his 100% record in tact. Western Art is not one of the leading lights, but he is decent and straightforward and should be up to winning a Leicester maiden. Mick Channon has one that is apparently fancied - Hatta Fort - and since he's provided the second to all of Pete's 2yo winners so far he can do so again.
There's not a lot else I like. I may have a bet on Wild Fell Hall in the last at Leicester - I think he'll go ok although I'm not convinced about the trip.
Monday, 21 May 2007
Thunderbolt
Mon Michel was pulled out on Sunday as we were unhappy about the ground. It was getting firmer by the hour and we didn't want to risk him on it. He'll probably come out on either Wednesday or Saturday.
Thunderbolt Jaxon goes tonight at Wolverhampton in what looks a pretty low grade race. He goes well on the home gallops but has been disappointing on the course. If the penny ever drops with him he still has the ability to make a decent horse - we'll try to make more of him today by pushing him on earlier. He'd be worth a bet at the right price.
I'll be backing Coyote Creek today in the 4.30 at Bath. This one ran behind Shawhill at Windsor last time in what I had down as a typically strong Windsor 3yo handicap. Ed Vaughan is an up and coming young trainer training alongside Henry Cecil at Warren Place. He's highly rated by those I know a Newmarket although he doesn't have many horses yet. CC doesn't have a great draw and there are still a few questions to be answered - he's not a max bet for me but at the right price he'd be a decent one.
Thunderbolt Jaxon goes tonight at Wolverhampton in what looks a pretty low grade race. He goes well on the home gallops but has been disappointing on the course. If the penny ever drops with him he still has the ability to make a decent horse - we'll try to make more of him today by pushing him on earlier. He'd be worth a bet at the right price.
I'll be backing Coyote Creek today in the 4.30 at Bath. This one ran behind Shawhill at Windsor last time in what I had down as a typically strong Windsor 3yo handicap. Ed Vaughan is an up and coming young trainer training alongside Henry Cecil at Warren Place. He's highly rated by those I know a Newmarket although he doesn't have many horses yet. CC doesn't have a great draw and there are still a few questions to be answered - he's not a max bet for me but at the right price he'd be a decent one.
Saturday, 19 May 2007
Mon Michel
Adam Eterno ran a stinker, coming stone last. Kerrin McEvoy said he "ran green" - maybe so but for now I'm assuming that he's pretty useless, which I can live with as I was assuming that anyway and the other two with Brian are looking decent. All things considered Captain Hurricane ran ok - a step forward in his rehabilitation. Declaration of War won his maiden, which is great news given I have two unraced 2yos with Pete.
Mon Michel runs at Fakenham today. He's capable of winning the race in a canter, but he is a tricky ride on a small field. I still think he'll win and I'll be backing him, but he's not one for the mortgage money. I may also have a small bet on Kildare Sun in the 4:40 at Ripon.
Mon Michel runs at Fakenham today. He's capable of winning the race in a canter, but he is a tricky ride on a small field. I still think he'll win and I'll be backing him, but he's not one for the mortgage money. I may also have a small bet on Kildare Sun in the 4:40 at Ripon.
Friday, 18 May 2007
Thoughts for the weekend
A bad day's betting today, perhaps stemming from the fact that I don't have the time to do my research properly. I spoke to Pete in the morning - he thought Polar Circle had a great chance but he was concerned about her temperament. He said Declaration of War (Newm 4:40) also goes well, but currently isn't quite the calibre of the likes of Polar Circle. He runs against Rimrock, the first 2yo to come out of Noseda's yard this year. Rimrock is sure to be fancied and may have the edge - it feels like a straight forecast.
I also had a good chat with Brian. I don't think Adam Eterno will be winning tomorrow. Captain Hurricane could surprise - I couldn't recommend a bet on him but I'll be backing him just in case. I'm happy with the way Major Eazy and Lord Peter Flint are progressing.
Shepherds Warning, the filly I claimed last week at Thirsk, has settled in with Nicky Vaughan at Michael Owen's new stable. Her name has been causing amusement in journalistic circles given some of the recent comments by Freddie Shepherd, the Newcastle chairman, about his star striker. There may be a piece in the Guardian tomorrow.
No big betting fancies, but I may go small on some. At Newmarket Eden Rock (2:25) appeals from a stable that had a poor year last year and may be picking up a little now. Galient (3:35) I'll give another chance to. At Newbury Peeress tries to win the Lockinge for the second year running - I had my biggest win of 2006 on her in this race and I'll back her again. Later on (4:45) Diamond Diva comes out and I'll be looking to recoup the money I lost on her last week, perhaps with a little interest. Tom Dascombe runs Magic Glade in the 4:45 at Thirsk, and he gives him a good chance. A small bet only for me, perhaps with a place bet alongside.
I also had a good chat with Brian. I don't think Adam Eterno will be winning tomorrow. Captain Hurricane could surprise - I couldn't recommend a bet on him but I'll be backing him just in case. I'm happy with the way Major Eazy and Lord Peter Flint are progressing.
Shepherds Warning, the filly I claimed last week at Thirsk, has settled in with Nicky Vaughan at Michael Owen's new stable. Her name has been causing amusement in journalistic circles given some of the recent comments by Freddie Shepherd, the Newcastle chairman, about his star striker. There may be a piece in the Guardian tomorrow.
No big betting fancies, but I may go small on some. At Newmarket Eden Rock (2:25) appeals from a stable that had a poor year last year and may be picking up a little now. Galient (3:35) I'll give another chance to. At Newbury Peeress tries to win the Lockinge for the second year running - I had my biggest win of 2006 on her in this race and I'll back her again. Later on (4:45) Diamond Diva comes out and I'll be looking to recoup the money I lost on her last week, perhaps with a little interest. Tom Dascombe runs Magic Glade in the 4:45 at Thirsk, and he gives him a good chance. A small bet only for me, perhaps with a place bet alongside.
Thursday, 17 May 2007
Roll on the Derby
Authorized was stunning today and it's going to take a very good one to lower his colours in the Derby. In the end I decided to back him, and the result was never in doubt - he could be a very special horse.
No runners today but a couple on Saturday - Adam Eterno and Captain Hurricane are both declared at Newbury and will probably run. Neither have obvious chances.
It's a good day's racing, but I'm busy for most of the day and I won't be getting too involved. Pete is 1 from 1 with his 2yos, and he brings out Polar Circle in the 1:55 at Newbury - I don't know how good she is but I'll be watching. Ballinteni runs in the 2.15 at York. He won on good ground last time - I think he'll prefer the softer ground and he can go in again. Non Compliant can improve for his first run and win the 3.40 at Newmarket. The Composer may be worth a small each-way in Newbury's 4:05. Zomerlust can run well in the 4.25 at York. I like Welcome Approach in the 9:10 at Hamilton if the ground comes up G/F, but that looks unlikely and the bet may have to wait.
No runners today but a couple on Saturday - Adam Eterno and Captain Hurricane are both declared at Newbury and will probably run. Neither have obvious chances.
It's a good day's racing, but I'm busy for most of the day and I won't be getting too involved. Pete is 1 from 1 with his 2yos, and he brings out Polar Circle in the 1:55 at Newbury - I don't know how good she is but I'll be watching. Ballinteni runs in the 2.15 at York. He won on good ground last time - I think he'll prefer the softer ground and he can go in again. Non Compliant can improve for his first run and win the 3.40 at Newmarket. The Composer may be worth a small each-way in Newbury's 4:05. Zomerlust can run well in the 4.25 at York. I like Welcome Approach in the 9:10 at Hamilton if the ground comes up G/F, but that looks unlikely and the bet may have to wait.
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