Ascot Saturday

Mon Michel runs in what is a very competitive juvenile on Saturday - Robert Thornton takes the ride. He's been disappointing thus far, well beaten into second on his last two starts, but he is good on the gallops and my feeling is that he is weighted to pick up a big handicap if and when it comes right for him. Jamie Moore prefers to ride Altihar in the race - I don't blame him but we get 20lb off Altihar and we would give him 20lb if it were a flat race, so it is a 40lb swing. I think we're the better prospect in a competitive handicap even if we have been a bit disappointing on the course so far.

Still luckless

King's Head was beaten fair and square by a decent looking animal. Prince Ary ran a stinker today and finished with quite a nasty cut on his leg. I've now had five second places and a couple of thirds since my last winner - roll on the flat season.

Going from bad to worse

I was spectacularly bad today - all my fancied horses finished unplaced and the only horse I laid won. Not much to be said about that.

King's Head goes tomorrow. He'd like it a little firmer but he should go ok - I spoke to Gary today and he said that the horse works like a good 'un and is as good as he can get him. I'm hopeful, but I won't be going. I'll have him in a double with Christdalo in the 3.40.

Update

I've rung around my various trainers to see if I could turn up anything.

Nick Gifford has five going at Newbury today. I asked him about Latimer's Place in the 2.25. The horse is getting on a bit. The ground is key (he needs it good) and he has that. He's getting a bit old though and can sulk when pushed along - Nick thinks he may be better value in a smaller field now. I also spoke to David Pipe who runs two in this race (and six over the day). I asked him if I should be backing any of his today and he said no (he fancied one tomorrow).

The only horse Nick felt was a betting proposition was Witness Run in the 4.35 - "will love the better ground, should win". Gary Moore runs Pardishar in the same race - I've been on the phone to him and he isn't tipping anything today.

I've had a good look at Master of the Race's race, and it really does look like a strong heat. Special Envoy, seventh in the Supreme Novice, is the favourite, but I'd be surprised if there isn't one better than him in this and I rate him a lay. Another Bottle and Sentry Duty had big ratings on the flat - Lead On has been extremely impressive. I am hearing very strong vibes for Sentry Duty in particular, and I think this Henderson trained horse is the one to be on. MOTR is worth a small bet for a place IMO.

I asked Tom about Bold Diktator in the 5.20 at Lingfield. BD appeared to be disappointing last time, but he was struck into about 3 furlongs from home and finished lame and missing a shoe. If you ignore that race he should probably be favourite today - Tom rates him as a bet and thinks he is a virtual certainty to place.

I also spoke to Peter C-H about Morning Farewell in the 4.50 at Lingfield. Pete reckons he has improved enormously since he came second last time - he is up against a Johnstone horse who we are told is very strongly fancied and has been backed heavily this morning, into odds on. Pete's view is "bring it on" - I'm happy to be taking on a debutante with an experienced improver.

There's a yankee in there somewhere - Witness Run, Sentry Duty, Bold Diktator, Morning Farewell. E/W double - Bold Diktator & MOTR. Win double Witness Run & Morning Farewell.

Racecourse Action

At last a decent period of action on the horse front - I have runners on each of the next three days.

Master of the Race goes on Saturday at Newbury in what looks to be a red hot novice. I had a long chat with Tom about him this morning - Tom was expecting a big run from him last time but he was disappointing. If his poor last run can be put down to the ground then he can go well today - Tom likes the horse a lot. This does look like an unusually strong novice though, and a win feels like a real longshot. He may be one for a place bet.

Nick Gifford has five runners at Newbury including Latimer's Place, a horse in decent form who Nick believes still has a decent handicap in him. I'll call Nick tomorrow morning - if he has anything interesting to say I'll update the blog.

On Sunday Kings Head comes out at Taunton. He's been great on the gallops and we've been waiting for the ground. For him it would have to be good or better. He should run well but it's too early to know if he will be value for a bet.

On Monday Prince Ary comes out at Plumpton. It's looking as if most of the quality oppo in his race will not run so he could have an easy task on. He is targeting Aintree (as is KH) - he really has to win here to earn his chance. He is in top form.

Cold Turkey

With Cheltenham now over I now have to honour my promise to my wife and give up smoking. I've been smoking solidly for 25 years so this may not be easy - still there's nothing like a good challenge. Fortunately there are two others in Betfair who are giving up - Josh Apiafi and Martin Cruddace. Josh and Martin will be excellent soulmates in my quest, and they are such reliable guys that I know they will see it through - this is a good thing as since giving up I have become incredibly short tempered and I wouldn't be able to forgive them if they went back to smoking again.

My terrible run of punting has continued - I didn't lose much on Thunderbolt Jaxon as the price was too short, but I've had a couple of largeish losing bets since. I can see myself becoming reckless without the fags to slow me down - either that or I'm going to get fat again.

With the weather clearing up I ought to get a few more runners out. I have a whole host of entries for the next couple of weeks, and there should be some action at some point. Prince Ary, Master of the Race and Mon Michel should all be out soon, and all should be better on the better ground. King's Head will debut soon, and he really needs it Good to Firm - he has an entry on Sunday. I have 1/3 of a new horse with Nick Gifford - a French bred recruit from the Irish point to point circuit called Ours - and he may debut for us soon. The 2yos are warming up and some will be out early.

I've been reading about Jim Devine, the Scottish MP who is claiming in Parliament that Betfair is a disreputable business. Devine, who succeeded Robin Cook, appears inexpert and has made statements that I am extremely uncomfortable with. His predecessor was fully expert and was a man I had come to know and respect. I would comment further but it is a company matter and not really appropriate for my blog.

The final curtain

Cheltenham drew to a close and I faced the horrible realisation that for the first time in my life I have gone through the meeting without finding a single winner. I didn't bet in as many races as I normally do due to time constraints and I twice had the heartbreak of seeing my horse jump the last in a comfortable lead only to be reeled in. Still it was a depressing performance.

The days when I had the time to spend hours poring through form are behind me, but even if I did I'm not sure I have the same enthusiasm as there are so many other thoughts that occupy my mind now. In the old days I could spend hours going through form and nothing could distract me. I can't do that now and it shows.

I had to drive up from home today having picked up our dog late last night - I left late and ran into serious traffic problems, and I didn't get to our box until after the second race. I meet a lot of sporting personalities in my job and it doesn't generally affect me, but there are one or two people I will always be in awe of. Sir Peter O'Sullevan is one such person, and he was in our box when I arrived - I've met him briefly a couple of times before. To my surprise he recognised me and came over for a chat. He is an amazing man - at the age of 92 his hearing isn't what it once was but his mind is as strong as ever. I felt humble in his company.

Kauto Star won the big one, and Clive collects his million pounds from us. He came into the Betfair tent a short while after the race, carrying the Gold Cup and with an enormous entourage. I felt emotional for him and had a brief chat - we did some photos on the stage and he left. It was a great race - Kauto had his customary last fence blunder and Exotic Dancer would have run him a lot closer had he had less traffic problems.

I stuck around to chat to a few punters and lose a bit more money. Nick Gifford had told me in the morning that he quite liked his horse Diego Cao at Fakenham - he came second at 25-1 after a few traffic problems.

Tomorrow Thunderbolt Jaxon finally makes his debut - I won't be going as I have too much on. The early tissues had him in at a big price and had me excited, but he's looking like opening at around 2.7 which is not a get rich price. I'm expecting a big run in what looks like an average race.

Last Chance Saloon

A busy day yesterday. Still no luck betting and heavily down for the week. I left early and drove over to Bimingham to pick up a puppy, then drove back home. I'll make my way back to Cheltenham this morning for the final leg.

I'll take Degas Art to win the Triumph today, with a saver on Parrain. I'm on ante post on both - I may also have a little on Liberate. I'll have a small bet on Joaaci in the 2.35 in the hope that he can return to form. In the Gold Cup I may have a little on Idle Talk for a place just to have something to follow, but I'll be watching it for Kauto Star to see if he can win the million. In the get out stakes I'll have a go on Crow Wood who could win on his best form and will prefer the ground to recent runs.

Update from the course

I'm in the Betfair tent now listening too all the gossip. The World Hurdle is the big one and I've heard a few views. BJK is not proving popular with the experts I've spoken to. Mighty Man seems to be the big Timeform fancy and there are a lot of good reasons to like him. I've been more influenced by Sean Boyce who thinks that Kasbah Bliss is the one to be on. I really like this horse, but I would have thought he'd have wanted it softer - Sean doesn't think so. He's a price and I may have a man's bet on him.

Paul Kealy thinks Adamant Approach is the bet for the last despite the fact that he is a 13 year old. Rodger Sargent likes Tikram as he may prefer this ground to his recent runs and is in good form. AP McCoy is doing 10-3 on Moncadou which is a weight he virtually never does - this is a tip in itself and Thierry Doumen has shown that he can train. I may have to go in on that one as well.

So it is looking as if I'll be backing two French horses today for a father and son double. I'll probably leave the remainder as I have a busy day planned.

It was a typically busy day at the course yesterday. I got there early and went to the Betfair marquee. We had a betting panel of four giving their views to our guests.

Harry Findlay, part owner of Denman, appeared impromptu in the box and got onto the stage - he spent about 15 minutes explaining why he thought Denman should be a 4/7 shot and not the 2/1 that was being offered. He left to rapturous applause - the marquee is full of big punters and Harry is the perfect speaker. I'm glad he won his bet.

Later I went to our box for lunch, and had a good chat with Clive Smith, owner of another Nicholls hotpot, Kauto Star. Clive is a really nice guy - softly spoken and friendly. He couldn't be any more different to Harry, who is also a nice guy but isn't backward in coming forward. If Kauto wins tomorrow we have to give Clive a £1 million bonus.

I spent the rest of the day with punters, firstly in the marquee and later at the Queens Hotel. There was the normal amount of heavy drinking, but I was feeling a bit ropey and didn't touch a drop all day. I rarely drink these days - I don't seem to cope with it very well. I'm feeling a bit perkier this morning.

I only had one bet yesterday - Lord Of Illusion, who lead for a while but was never going well enough. The highlight today is Black Jack Ketchum in the World Hurdle. He's not been the same force this season, but my gut feel at this stage is that he will win. Monet's Garden is another favourite today that I like. I may have a bet on Reveillez who I backed last year - the ground may do the trick for him.

Day 2

Not a great start to the week. I ended up with two large bets - one on Distant Thunder and one on Straw Bear.

The Bear was going like a good 'un when he burst a blood vessel - he trotted in after the race with blood pouring from his nose. I was with Nick in the early afternoon and I said I'd call him after the race but I left it - he will be devastated.

Distant Thunder ran a great race - he traded 1.11 in running and looked like the winner everywhere but the line, when suddenly he came third. The rest of my selections did nothing.

The most interesting aspect of the day yesterday was the ground. The race times clearly indicated that it was good ground, despite the official verdict of soft/good to soft. They are calling it good to soft today, but it is probably pretty decent ground. The ground has been heavy across the country for the last three months - this form can be thrown out the window. The better ground will bring the smaller flat bred types back into the picture.

I've less time today as I've got to get to the course. Some quick comments;

Race 1 - the Novice Hurdle. Aran Concerto is a banker for many. I'll pass, looking for better value - I'll go win and place on Imperial Commander from the Twiston-Davies yard, who may be very decent and may appreciate this ground more than some.

Race 2 - The Sun Alliance Chase. Harry Findlay will be looking for a big run from Denman, and not being the shy retiring type he may have a tilt at the ring. He's a lovely horses and has won 8 of his 9 starts, only meeting defeat at Cheltenham last year when outsped by Nicanor. There is a lot of quality up against him, including the talented Cailinn Alainn. I like Denman but can't bring myself to back him at the price - no bet for me.

Race 3 - The Queen Mother. Well Chief is back and is the third short priced favourite of the day. I love this horse and he may run a big race. I hope he wins, but for money I'll be taking him on with last year's winner, New Mill. Conditions are right for New Mill and he is sure to go well.

Race 4 - The Coral Cup. The normal massive entry, and no short priced favourite here - I'll have a bet for a bit of interest but no more. Rodger Sargent runs Dusky Warbler, who may go well. Nick Gifford told me yesterday that he quietly fancied Dusky Lord. There are some things in life that I just can't resist, and the Dusky forecast is one of those.

Race 5 - the Kim Muir. I don't normally like this race, but I'm a big fan of Lord of Illusion and I may have a decent bet on him. He seems to have lost his form but the ground has come right for him and maybe he can start out on the comeback trail.

Race 6 - the Champion Bumper. Not a race for me, although I have picked the winner many times over the years through luck rather than judgement. I'd favour the flat breds today on account of the ground - Cork All Star and Sergheyev are a couple of possibles.

Day 1

Well another disappointment today with Mon Michel, but no time to cry. Cheltenham beckons, so let's see if I can cut the mustard as a tipster.

Race 1 - The Supreme Novices

Well I hate to be dull but I just can't get away from Amaretto Rose. I have always liked progressive fillies, particularly those that mature late, and this is one such horse. It is impossible not to be impressed by what she has done so far. I may have a saver on Hobbs Hill, who looks a classy sort and is a price. I'll be watching Granit Jack, who carries the flag for John Hales - his daughter picks his horses for him and she's proved in the past what a good eye she has for this sort of thing.

Race 2 - The Arkle

A top class renewal and some here are sure to go on to greater things. Three vie for favouritism - Fair Along, My Way De Solzen and Don't Push It, and it's hard to knock the claims of any of these. In the search for a bit of value I'll go with Buena Vista, a great looking horse who is made for the chasing game. He has a bit to find, but he may still be progressive. He would probably prefer better ground and perhaps an extra furlong or two, but I'll take my chances.

Race 3 - The Champion Hurdle

I'm on Straw Bear ante-post and I'm sticking with him. The conditions are right - it's just a question of whether he is good enough. I spoke to Nick today - he says the horse is as good as he can get him and he's got his fingers crossed. He may be a few pounds short of the mark on form, but he has the able assistance of AP and could run a big race.

Race 4 - The William Hill Handicap Chase

There are two I like in this one. Commercial Flyer hardly inspires confidence having failed to finish in his last four starts, but this is a horse of significant potential. Distant Thunder has moved from Robert Alner to Noel Chance, and ran well for Chance before being put away, no doubt with this race in mind. I'll back both and do the forecast - marginal preference for Distant Thunder.

Race 5 - The Cross Country Chase

I'm no great fan of this race - it's hard to know how to assess it. I'll go with Enda Bolger's Spot Thedifference, but not with a lot of confidence.

Race 6 - the Fred Winter

A good race this. Gaspara is an obvious favourite and tries to collect the bonus - he is sure to run well. Pouvoir is a horse I like a lot, similarly Silver Jaro, Pancake and some others. It's a handicap though, and looking for a bit of value I'll side with Shazand. Eddie O'Grady seems to do inordinately well in Cheltenham handicaps, and this decent recruit from the flat could find a bit of improvement here.


I'll have a little at 16 on Timmy Murphy to win the jockeys championship - he is riding a number of my fancies.

Mon Michel

Just a quick one today as I'm tight for time. Mon Michel is running in he 3.00 at Plumpton - AP takes he ride as Jamie is currently off for a ban. He drifted a little this morning but he's still odds on. Anything other than a win will be a disappointment - he's been a little quirky in his races to date for us but I believe he retains all his ability and is a quality animal. He should be better for his most recent run. Whether he's value at the odds is another question - I think he is and I'll be backing him although I have some concerns in the back of my mind.

Calm before the storm

It's all a bit quiet in the lead up to Cheltenham, and not much to blog about. I'm very busy at work and fairly engaged in it all at the moment, so I haven't been following the racing. One of my syndicates is in the process of buying another horse for the jumps in Ireland, and I'll update on that if it goes through.

I'm going to Cheltenham for the whole week, and no doubt it will be the usual crazy beerfest. I preferred the old three day festival, and so did my liver - I don't think the extra races add much and it turns the week into a bit of a marathon. It should be fun though and there will be a few stories.

On my way home I am picking up a puppy - a black and white Newfoundland - which is a new venture for the Black family. My long suffering wife put up a lot of resistance on this, but I worked our girls up into such a frenzy about the idea that she had to give in. It's a big commitment but I'm sure we'll be ok. When Cheltenham is over I face the horrible prospect of giving up smoking - I decided a while ago that I would do this. I'm trying to roll back the years a little and find a bit more energy to deal with my busy life - I've recently lost three stone in weight and I go to the gym two or three days a week. It seems to be working - I feel a lot better than a did a year ago - and the smoking is hopefully the final piece of the puzzle.

I opened some fairly hairy option positions in the stock market in the early part of the week - the first time I've properly punted stocks for a couple of years. I see Bwin may be bidding for Sportingbet, which is interesting. It seems to make sense, although it gives would give Bwin US exposure that they have never had before. I'm wondering if the news will flush out another bidder.

Half full or half empty?

Mon Michel ran at Newbury on Friday, coming second. He looked like the winner two out but decided he wasn't going to put it in - he doesn't seem to be the most genuine at the moment. It's nice to have a half result, but he's better than that. He scoped clean after the race.

It's looking highly unlikely now that I will have a runner for Cheltenham. Mon Michel is still in the Triumph, but isn't looking good enough and in any case is unlikely to get in. Prince Ary will probably wait for better ground. King's Head is close to a run, but again needs it a lot firmer. There's a good chance that one or more of these will run at Aintree.

There was a bomb scare at Betfair today. Someone rang in and said a bomb would go off at an unspecified Betfair office, so we evacuated both of our offices in the UK. No bomb materialised, which I guess was no great surprise.

I grew up in Wimbledon and my family have historic ties with the football club. My great uncle was the chairman back in the sixties - he would have turned in his grave when they moved to Milton Keynes a few years back. AFC Wimbledon emerged to fill the vacant spot, and they have done Wimbledon proud with their efforts in the Rymans League.

AFC routinely have attendance figures close to 3,000, about ten times the average for their league. A week ago they were top of the league, but slipped to third today after a draw at home. This may change though - they face an 18 point deduction for fielding an unregistered player which is currently in appeal. It was nothing more than a minor oversight - the full story is summed up here;
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2007/02/27/is_afc_wimbledons_oversight_wo.html

This is not what sport is about. I hope the FA see sense and turn this around.