I'm very busy at work at the moment and I'm struggling to find time to look after my blog. Betfair radio launched on Monday - I did a guest slot and I'm doing another tomorrow. I like the team and it's entertaining. Being internet radio it has quite a time delay which is not ideal - we will try to find ways to reduce this.
On Monday night I went to a business conference in London staged by Ariadne Capital. I chatted to a winning owner of the Melbourne Cup, the CEO of Saxobank and the founder of a lingerie sales website (www.becheeky.com). There's nothing like a bit of variety. There was a panel discussion which was interesting - one of the panelists told us that the US economy is set to collapse under the weight of it's bond position with China and that the Euro is unsustainable and is sure to break up at some point. These are not cranky assertions - I've heard similar views from expert commentators before and I have my own opinions - but the subject of an imminent global economic collapse is not for my blog. I headed home in the early hours.
On Tuesday after work I headed up to Leeds and checked into a hotel - from there on Wednesday I made my way to Timeform house in Halifax for an early start. It was Timeform's 60th birthday, and Princess Anne was paying a visit - I had a short chat with her. She comes across as very straightforward and unaffected, and very switched on. I was surprised that she knew all about Betfair and had read about our acquisition of Timeform in the business pages. I shouldn't have been surprised - perhaps I'm hanging on to my childhood image of princesses as people who sit around in ivory towers having their toenails manicured all day, but that clearly isn't the case. I presented her with a cheque for the St. John Ambulance.
I stuck around for a while and had a good chat with Jim McGrath and Kieran Packman about horses and potential angles for finding success before heading home.
Mon Michel is down to run at Newbury on Friday, and I will go if I can find the time.
Wednesday, 28 February 2007
Sunday, 25 February 2007
Embarrassment
Saturday was a disappointing day. Mon Michel was running at Kempton, and having given the matter some thought I concluded that at 14-1 he was an outstanding bet. I don’t normally proactively tip my horses, but I decided to share the good news. I rang my mother, my uncle and my sister and told them to have a good bet – I also rang one of my wife’s friends. It was Mrs Goggins’ birthday, and all of my in-laws came round for a small party – I shared the news with them and my brother-in-law headed off to the local bookies having collected money from everyone. I headed off to the racecourse, arriving 30 minutes before the race.
I met up with Rodger and Gary Moore – Jamie Moore joined us in the ring. There were two concerns about the race. Jamie felt that the horse liked it soft on the gallops but hadn’t liked it as much when it had been really heavy – the ground was reported as soft with heavy patches, and the early feedback was that it was pretty desperate. It was also apparent that every jockey in the race had been instructed to hang back early, and no-one was prepared to make the running – Jamie thought that when the tape came up they would all just stand there and wait, which was exactly what happened. Mon Michel didn’t settle in the early stages, but he got going after about three fences and for a while was looking as if he might run a race. At the third last he lifted his head and started to slow up – he trailed in a distant fifth of six.
Cheltenham looks out for him now – we have an entry for the Triumph but he is unlikely to get in and in any case we have to assume that he isn’t good enough at the moment. He may run on Friday at Newbury and he could run well, but I won’t be recommending him to anyone and I may not back him. I think he has ability but he might not be the most genuine and he may need better ground. I’ll be keeping my head down at family gatherings for a while.
Sunday was a quiet day. I was in a very reflective mood, thinking about the horses and a few things at work. I’m an obsessive thinker, and often I get so deep in thought that I don’t function properly otherwise and do odd things. My wife is used to it, and she refers to them as my “Bert moments” – I had a quality Bert moment on Sunday morning when I stopped at a green traffic light.
I was on my way to the dump – the car was piled high with boxes blocking my view in the rear view mirror, and I had the music on full blast. I sat there waiting for the lights to change, but it was a pelican crossing and it wasn’t going to happen. After a few minutes a load of cars started filing past me, and someone shouted out something rather rude – in my side mirror I could see about 15 cars lined up behind. I drove on to the dump with a red face.
I don’t enjoy looking like a fool, but it happens to me more than most and I’m pretty philosophical about it. One thing I see time and time again in my business life is people who won’t challenge or ask questions when they should because they’re worried it will show them up as ignorant. I never do this – I tend to say exactly what I think (always politely) – and although it sometimes lands me in sticky situations I think it’s the right long term policy. In a similar vein in life in general I’d rather be on the field than in the stands. It’s a combination of having to speculate to accumulate and learning from one’s mistakes – if you’re not in the mix then you won’t progress. This blog is a good example – I’m not sure I know why I’m doing it but it might take me somewhere interesting so I’ll give it a go to find out.
I met up with Rodger and Gary Moore – Jamie Moore joined us in the ring. There were two concerns about the race. Jamie felt that the horse liked it soft on the gallops but hadn’t liked it as much when it had been really heavy – the ground was reported as soft with heavy patches, and the early feedback was that it was pretty desperate. It was also apparent that every jockey in the race had been instructed to hang back early, and no-one was prepared to make the running – Jamie thought that when the tape came up they would all just stand there and wait, which was exactly what happened. Mon Michel didn’t settle in the early stages, but he got going after about three fences and for a while was looking as if he might run a race. At the third last he lifted his head and started to slow up – he trailed in a distant fifth of six.
Cheltenham looks out for him now – we have an entry for the Triumph but he is unlikely to get in and in any case we have to assume that he isn’t good enough at the moment. He may run on Friday at Newbury and he could run well, but I won’t be recommending him to anyone and I may not back him. I think he has ability but he might not be the most genuine and he may need better ground. I’ll be keeping my head down at family gatherings for a while.
Sunday was a quiet day. I was in a very reflective mood, thinking about the horses and a few things at work. I’m an obsessive thinker, and often I get so deep in thought that I don’t function properly otherwise and do odd things. My wife is used to it, and she refers to them as my “Bert moments” – I had a quality Bert moment on Sunday morning when I stopped at a green traffic light.
I was on my way to the dump – the car was piled high with boxes blocking my view in the rear view mirror, and I had the music on full blast. I sat there waiting for the lights to change, but it was a pelican crossing and it wasn’t going to happen. After a few minutes a load of cars started filing past me, and someone shouted out something rather rude – in my side mirror I could see about 15 cars lined up behind. I drove on to the dump with a red face.
I don’t enjoy looking like a fool, but it happens to me more than most and I’m pretty philosophical about it. One thing I see time and time again in my business life is people who won’t challenge or ask questions when they should because they’re worried it will show them up as ignorant. I never do this – I tend to say exactly what I think (always politely) – and although it sometimes lands me in sticky situations I think it’s the right long term policy. In a similar vein in life in general I’d rather be on the field than in the stands. It’s a combination of having to speculate to accumulate and learning from one’s mistakes – if you’re not in the mix then you won’t progress. This blog is a good example – I’m not sure I know why I’m doing it but it might take me somewhere interesting so I’ll give it a go to find out.
Friday, 23 February 2007
Commerce rules
I was disappointed to read today that Wimbledon have decided to award equal prize money to men and women, bowing to political pressure and bringing them in line with the other grand slams. It's a case of politics ahead of commercials, it's not a decision that can ever be reversed and it sets a dangerous precedent for other sports.
This is not to say that I blame the All England Club for taking the decision - human rights lobbyists wield a lot of power and can be bullies. The AE can't afford to be typecast as an old school bastion of British maleness - they have a business to run. The men’s and women’s at Wimbledon are rolled into one event, but there is a marketplace that exposes the value differential of the two tournaments. Debenture tickets for the women's final and semi finals days on the resale market go for around half of the men's equivalent. What will happen next - will the veterans and juniors be brought into line to avoid accusations of ageism?
The AE could change the "Gentlemen's singles" to the "Open singles", trying to win the argument that way - it would make the point, but it's too cute and would worsen matters. I think they should drop the "Gentlemen" bit regardless. There seems to be an implicit class distinction in it - are you not allowed in if you're not a gentleman?
I'm a firm believer in free market forces in sport - commerce rules. I have my own ideas on how Betfair should pay for horse racing. At the moment we pay a percentage of our overall horse racing commission take to a central horse racing body. In an ideal world I’d prefer us to be paying a percentage of our take for each horse race retrospectively into the purse for the race, a percentage direct to the host racecourse and a percentage to the central body. It would better align incentives. Racecourses are incented to serve up better racing fare for punters, and they have additional data to assist them in this. Owners and trainers have more incentive to go for competitive races rather than score facile wins at long odds on in poor betting heats, and also to promote betting interest in their own horses by sharing information. The central body still gets some cash to help finance their operation, and we have invested the rest of the money intelligently in their properties on their behalf.
As an idea it's too radical and unworkable, but there is a strong underlying principle. If we are paying a sport for content (on our own behalf and also on behalf of our customers) then we have a right to a say on how that money should be invested within the sport. We want to work collaboratively with sport to pursue our joint interests, but managing such processes is complex and difficult. If we can devise commercial structures that align incentives better then a lot of this may just take care of itself.
Enough of that and on to the important stuff. Mon Michel runs tomorrow, and it’s probably my last chance saloon for Cheltenham. He’s receiving 7lb from the principals – if he can’t beat them in receipt of that then he won’t beat them in the Triumph. The ground (soft at the moment) is in his favour, he’s had a lot of jumping practice and he’s going well. Fingers crossed for a result.
This is not to say that I blame the All England Club for taking the decision - human rights lobbyists wield a lot of power and can be bullies. The AE can't afford to be typecast as an old school bastion of British maleness - they have a business to run. The men’s and women’s at Wimbledon are rolled into one event, but there is a marketplace that exposes the value differential of the two tournaments. Debenture tickets for the women's final and semi finals days on the resale market go for around half of the men's equivalent. What will happen next - will the veterans and juniors be brought into line to avoid accusations of ageism?
The AE could change the "Gentlemen's singles" to the "Open singles", trying to win the argument that way - it would make the point, but it's too cute and would worsen matters. I think they should drop the "Gentlemen" bit regardless. There seems to be an implicit class distinction in it - are you not allowed in if you're not a gentleman?
I'm a firm believer in free market forces in sport - commerce rules. I have my own ideas on how Betfair should pay for horse racing. At the moment we pay a percentage of our overall horse racing commission take to a central horse racing body. In an ideal world I’d prefer us to be paying a percentage of our take for each horse race retrospectively into the purse for the race, a percentage direct to the host racecourse and a percentage to the central body. It would better align incentives. Racecourses are incented to serve up better racing fare for punters, and they have additional data to assist them in this. Owners and trainers have more incentive to go for competitive races rather than score facile wins at long odds on in poor betting heats, and also to promote betting interest in their own horses by sharing information. The central body still gets some cash to help finance their operation, and we have invested the rest of the money intelligently in their properties on their behalf.
As an idea it's too radical and unworkable, but there is a strong underlying principle. If we are paying a sport for content (on our own behalf and also on behalf of our customers) then we have a right to a say on how that money should be invested within the sport. We want to work collaboratively with sport to pursue our joint interests, but managing such processes is complex and difficult. If we can devise commercial structures that align incentives better then a lot of this may just take care of itself.
Enough of that and on to the important stuff. Mon Michel runs tomorrow, and it’s probably my last chance saloon for Cheltenham. He’s receiving 7lb from the principals – if he can’t beat them in receipt of that then he won’t beat them in the Triumph. The ground (soft at the moment) is in his favour, he’s had a lot of jumping practice and he’s going well. Fingers crossed for a result.
Wednesday, 21 February 2007
More frustration
Damn and blast. With Lingfield called off we lost a lot more than a day at the races - we lose the opportunity to give Mon Michel a prep race, but more significantly we can't go for the Fred Winter now as we won't have the required three races for a handicap mark in the bag by Saturday. We'll almost certainly still go for the Adonis, but it would have been nice to have seen him complete in a race beforehand.
We won't be the only ones who have had trouble finding races pre Cheltenham - there are any number of horses who have been waiting for better ground before they come out, and there simply hasn't been any. Some horses which are targetting Cheltenham but need good ground have had to come out and run in the soft simply because they need a run and the clock is ticking - others are still waiting, but time is running out.
One horse who has taken his time to make his NH debut is Lightning Strike, who comes out at Huntingdon tomorrow. Rodger and I tried to buy this horse at the HIT last October but he got very high, selling for £200k. We had our vet check him out and Jim McGrath at Timeform wrote me an analysis of the horse from what they knew. He's a genuine stayer, having been the only 3yo to run in the Cesarewitch last year. He's a good type physically and is sound, having run on all surfaces on the flat. He's been supported for the Triumph so he's probably working pretty well for Venetia Williams.
I have some doubts though. He had a long season last year - 11 races finishing in October - and he might be in need of a longer break. These real long distance types can be a bit slow when it comes to 2 mile hurdles (they don't build up the same momentum and speed in hurdle races as the hurdles slow them down), although perhaps Detroit City bucks this trend - this may go against him in the Triumph. Tomorrow's race is over 2m4f, which looks ideal - the soft ground looks a little less ideal though. I'm guessing that they'd prefer to run him on better ground but need to get him out now as Cheltenham is so close.
The odds on favourite, My Turn Now, is a year older and is conceding a stone. He's been a class act this year, winning four on the bounce on testing ground before falling at the last in the Tolworth when looking like a possible winner. His owners advertised him for sale the week before the Tolworth - a fair point to try and cash in, but it makes me wonder if they believe he has what it takes to progress from here. He lay on the ground for ten minutes after his fall, winded and probably exhausted - Charlie Mann reported no ill effects, but with six hurdle races this season already and a crashing fall like that I'd like to see him take a longer break. Classy though he is I'd struggle to back him at the prevailing 2-1 on over a distance 3f longer than he has ever run before.
I haven't spoken to Gary Moore about Shardakhan, but although he can't claim to be in the same class as the two principals he might be the value alternative for this particular race. He's solid and should be staying on at the end - Win and place for me.
The only other race I looked at was the mares race at 2.00, where I'm wondering if Philip Hobbs can work a little of his magic with Picacho. This ex John Dunlop filly has been very lightly raced, but with no major gaps - either she was still immature or perhaps is a little infirm somewhere. She went for £25k in the sale - about the right price given her 67 rating. She has the right breeding for the NH game and goes on the soft - Darren O'Dwyer takes 7lb off. This is a very weak race - I may get tempted in.
We won't be the only ones who have had trouble finding races pre Cheltenham - there are any number of horses who have been waiting for better ground before they come out, and there simply hasn't been any. Some horses which are targetting Cheltenham but need good ground have had to come out and run in the soft simply because they need a run and the clock is ticking - others are still waiting, but time is running out.
One horse who has taken his time to make his NH debut is Lightning Strike, who comes out at Huntingdon tomorrow. Rodger and I tried to buy this horse at the HIT last October but he got very high, selling for £200k. We had our vet check him out and Jim McGrath at Timeform wrote me an analysis of the horse from what they knew. He's a genuine stayer, having been the only 3yo to run in the Cesarewitch last year. He's a good type physically and is sound, having run on all surfaces on the flat. He's been supported for the Triumph so he's probably working pretty well for Venetia Williams.
I have some doubts though. He had a long season last year - 11 races finishing in October - and he might be in need of a longer break. These real long distance types can be a bit slow when it comes to 2 mile hurdles (they don't build up the same momentum and speed in hurdle races as the hurdles slow them down), although perhaps Detroit City bucks this trend - this may go against him in the Triumph. Tomorrow's race is over 2m4f, which looks ideal - the soft ground looks a little less ideal though. I'm guessing that they'd prefer to run him on better ground but need to get him out now as Cheltenham is so close.
The odds on favourite, My Turn Now, is a year older and is conceding a stone. He's been a class act this year, winning four on the bounce on testing ground before falling at the last in the Tolworth when looking like a possible winner. His owners advertised him for sale the week before the Tolworth - a fair point to try and cash in, but it makes me wonder if they believe he has what it takes to progress from here. He lay on the ground for ten minutes after his fall, winded and probably exhausted - Charlie Mann reported no ill effects, but with six hurdle races this season already and a crashing fall like that I'd like to see him take a longer break. Classy though he is I'd struggle to back him at the prevailing 2-1 on over a distance 3f longer than he has ever run before.
I haven't spoken to Gary Moore about Shardakhan, but although he can't claim to be in the same class as the two principals he might be the value alternative for this particular race. He's solid and should be staying on at the end - Win and place for me.
The only other race I looked at was the mares race at 2.00, where I'm wondering if Philip Hobbs can work a little of his magic with Picacho. This ex John Dunlop filly has been very lightly raced, but with no major gaps - either she was still immature or perhaps is a little infirm somewhere. She went for £25k in the sale - about the right price given her 67 rating. She has the right breeding for the NH game and goes on the soft - Darren O'Dwyer takes 7lb off. This is a very weak race - I may get tempted in.
Tuesday, 20 February 2007
Exorcism required
I went to the “Sharp Edge Entrepreneurial Awards” last night. It’s a great honour to be nominated for awards but I have a real phobia about public speaking, and when I realised that all the winners were making short rousing speeches I started drinking hard and praying that we wouldn’t win. We won the main prize, and I shuffled up to collect the trophy amid loud cheering, or perhaps jeering, with lights flashing everywhere. I felt particularly embarrassed as I had left my shoes at home and was wearing trainers with my dinner jacket, but I managed to muster a smile and mumble a few words before making a sharp exit, cutting a rather shambolic figure.
The human psyche is an odd thing – I was once a good speaker, but I choked badly speaking at a business do a while back when I was under a lot of stress. I’ve never recovered my composure. Years ago, I was on a small plane that was caught in a big thunderstorm and I got into a real panic – I had trouble flying for a long time afterwards and I’m still nervy about it. Once in my youth I ate a bunch of daffodils for a bet and I was violently sick later – I couldn’t look at a daffodil for years without feeling ill.
I got home late and crashed into bed. My hangover was interrupted early by my excited six-year-old daughter who was clutching a beautifully crafted note covered in spangles and lace. It read “I’m sorry to hear that your tooth went down the plughole, but here’s a pound anyway. Always remember to clean your teeth. Love, the Tooth Fairy”. She told me she would remember this note for the rest of her life. As she skipped out of the bedroom I leant over and whispered to my wife “Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive”.
It’s another recent incident that has led me to wonder if my children are a bit weird, and to what degree I’m responsible. Three weeks ago my two year old son, Eddie, informed us that he was Mrs Goggins, a character from Postman Pat. This morning’s conversation was typical;
Me: Come on Eddie, time for breakfast.
Ed: (Steely glare) No Dad, I’m Mrs Goggins.
Me: Would you like some breakfast Mrs. Goggins?
Ed: (big grin) Yes Dad. Sank you very much.
Wife: (smiling) He’s sooo like his father.
Like his father? Why exactly?! OK, he’s not exactly Damien from the Omen but it’s worrying – I can see him having trouble with girls in later life if he doesn’t vanquish Mrs. Goggins from his soul. Anyone know a good exorcist?
Enough of this and onto the racing. Mon Michel lines up tomorrow at Lingfield, and I’m hoping to find time to go. It was a competitive looking maiden a couple of days ago but it's cut up small and may be a match between us and the Pipe horse, Polinamix.
Mon Michel was rated 102 on the flat and he was best on soft ground. He's been gelded and he recovered quickly, so we've had plenty of time to work on him. He should go well. The Pipe horse seems to have lost his way a bit, and he has to give us seven pounds. He has the benefit of McCoy on board, but it's asking a lot of him to give us the weight if we run anything close to our flat form and see the race out.
We will hopefully go on from this and run in the Adonis at Kempton on Saturday - it's the last date to get a handicap mark for Cheltenham. If it all goes well we can think about the Triumph - if not we will at least have a handicap and we have the option of the Fred Winter.
Better Together has sustained an injury and won't run again this season. Conservation also picked up an injury on the horse walker the other day, and we won't be able to get a run into him for six or so weeks. Given the way the timing has worked out we have decided to geld him now and get him out for a few flat runs later this year, where he has a handy mark. He will move from Nick Gifford to Tom Dascombe for the flat season - if all goes well we will take him back to Nick towards the end of the year.
Baldovina has had a clean rating from our vet and she has settled well into her new home. She has a decent frame, but weighs in very light at 410kg - we need to get a lot more meat onto her bones and we will take our time with her.
The human psyche is an odd thing – I was once a good speaker, but I choked badly speaking at a business do a while back when I was under a lot of stress. I’ve never recovered my composure. Years ago, I was on a small plane that was caught in a big thunderstorm and I got into a real panic – I had trouble flying for a long time afterwards and I’m still nervy about it. Once in my youth I ate a bunch of daffodils for a bet and I was violently sick later – I couldn’t look at a daffodil for years without feeling ill.
I got home late and crashed into bed. My hangover was interrupted early by my excited six-year-old daughter who was clutching a beautifully crafted note covered in spangles and lace. It read “I’m sorry to hear that your tooth went down the plughole, but here’s a pound anyway. Always remember to clean your teeth. Love, the Tooth Fairy”. She told me she would remember this note for the rest of her life. As she skipped out of the bedroom I leant over and whispered to my wife “Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive”.
It’s another recent incident that has led me to wonder if my children are a bit weird, and to what degree I’m responsible. Three weeks ago my two year old son, Eddie, informed us that he was Mrs Goggins, a character from Postman Pat. This morning’s conversation was typical;
Me: Come on Eddie, time for breakfast.
Ed: (Steely glare) No Dad, I’m Mrs Goggins.
Me: Would you like some breakfast Mrs. Goggins?
Ed: (big grin) Yes Dad. Sank you very much.
Wife: (smiling) He’s sooo like his father.
Like his father? Why exactly?! OK, he’s not exactly Damien from the Omen but it’s worrying – I can see him having trouble with girls in later life if he doesn’t vanquish Mrs. Goggins from his soul. Anyone know a good exorcist?
Enough of this and onto the racing. Mon Michel lines up tomorrow at Lingfield, and I’m hoping to find time to go. It was a competitive looking maiden a couple of days ago but it's cut up small and may be a match between us and the Pipe horse, Polinamix.
Mon Michel was rated 102 on the flat and he was best on soft ground. He's been gelded and he recovered quickly, so we've had plenty of time to work on him. He should go well. The Pipe horse seems to have lost his way a bit, and he has to give us seven pounds. He has the benefit of McCoy on board, but it's asking a lot of him to give us the weight if we run anything close to our flat form and see the race out.
We will hopefully go on from this and run in the Adonis at Kempton on Saturday - it's the last date to get a handicap mark for Cheltenham. If it all goes well we can think about the Triumph - if not we will at least have a handicap and we have the option of the Fred Winter.
Better Together has sustained an injury and won't run again this season. Conservation also picked up an injury on the horse walker the other day, and we won't be able to get a run into him for six or so weeks. Given the way the timing has worked out we have decided to geld him now and get him out for a few flat runs later this year, where he has a handy mark. He will move from Nick Gifford to Tom Dascombe for the flat season - if all goes well we will take him back to Nick towards the end of the year.
Baldovina has had a clean rating from our vet and she has settled well into her new home. She has a decent frame, but weighs in very light at 410kg - we need to get a lot more meat onto her bones and we will take our time with her.
Saturday, 17 February 2007
Another for the string
I got back from a weeks holiday on Dartmoor on Thursday night and didn't go into the office on Friday. It gave me a chance to catch up with the horses and hatch a few plans.
Straw Bear was down to run in the Kingwell hurdle, and he had the look of a banker about him. He's a real pro and looked sure to run a strong race - it was more or less a match with Afsoun, who is younger and less proven at this stage. Afsoun had run a big race last time on bottomless going - I follow horses that really handle the heavy and many of my biggest bets over the years have been on heavy ground days. I figured that Afsoun was probably a high class mudlark but a shade short of top class otherwise, and even if the analysis was wrong he was no certainty to reel in Straw Bear. The going at Wincanton was soft.
I'd expected Straw Bear to be a very short priced favourite, but the early tissues had Afsoun in as favourite with Straw Bear a shade of odds against. I probably only have two or three big bets a year these days as I'm rarely that confident about anything - I decided I was going to have my biggest ever bet. I had a few early punts and lost a bit of money, including one on Wee Robbie who came second at a big price. As the Kingwell approached the price was getting shorter and shorter - I'm price sensitive in these things and I didn't weigh in with as much as I had planned. The Bear won well - Afsoun goes into the notebook for the next time the ground really cuts up.
I've been planning to pick up a few horses in claimers this year, and Mick, my racing manager, studies all the claimers (in England and France) assiduously. Mick had highlighted the 4.25 at Lingfield as a possible - one of the fancied horses was a non-runner, but we were still interested in a filly called Baldovina.
Buying in claimers is tricky as there is no chance for a vet's exam - a lot has to be taken on trust. Mick spends time looking at pedigrees and tracking trainer performance to see who is weak, which trainers horses have historically done well for a move and which trainers seem to be badly suited by certain types of horses. Examining motives for sale is a big part of it - the other guy knows the horse better than we do and if he wants out it's a good reason not to want in.
Baldovina was trained by Marco Botti in Newmarket. Botti is no bum trainer - he's very much on the up and has recently moved stables to deal with an influx of top class horses. Tom Dascombe went to the track - he reported before the race on the appearance of the filly. She was a decent size (16 hands or so) but of fairly light build and looking light on bone. She looked as if she could fill out a fair bit. He had spoken to a former assistant at the Botti yard who said that he thought the horse was sound but not classy enough for the owner concerned.
There were several reasons for liking the horse. The pedigree was hard to decipher, but on balance it looked as if she would be better over further in time. Broodmare potential was hard to assess, but couldn't be entirely ruled out. As a filly she was a classier proposition than the colts in the race as she was racing off levels with the principals but had a right to an allowance. She was a very late foal (27th May) - converting to human terms she is about 16 1/2, whereas an early foal would be 18. This is quite a difference and its importance is IMO often underestimated.
Botti is a good trainer but Boldovina was one of his lesser lights, and he had recently moved stables which must have interrupted his routine. Weighing it all up we decided to go for it if she won the race - I had a decent bet on her to get something into the pot in that eventuality. It was only a five horse race, but Neil Callan found all sorts of trouble in running, getting locked out three times - she came third but we felt that with a clear run she may well have won. Tom spoke to Callan after the race - Callan said "that's as good as she is" suggesting that third place was the right result, but we decided to disregard this. Tom put the claim in (£17k) and we got the horse - it was a bit expensive as I had to pay for the horse and stomach the losing bet, but it was a good betting day on balance.
I should have runners this coming week. Mon Michel is down to run at Lingfield on Wednesday and we're hopeful - he has been working well with Nation State, who ran a good second today. Master of the Race is down to run on Tuesday, but unless the ground firms up is unlikely to score. Thunderbolt Jaxon was supposed to be running on Monday but has been taken out - I haven't spoken to Pete so I don't know why this is.
Straw Bear was down to run in the Kingwell hurdle, and he had the look of a banker about him. He's a real pro and looked sure to run a strong race - it was more or less a match with Afsoun, who is younger and less proven at this stage. Afsoun had run a big race last time on bottomless going - I follow horses that really handle the heavy and many of my biggest bets over the years have been on heavy ground days. I figured that Afsoun was probably a high class mudlark but a shade short of top class otherwise, and even if the analysis was wrong he was no certainty to reel in Straw Bear. The going at Wincanton was soft.
I'd expected Straw Bear to be a very short priced favourite, but the early tissues had Afsoun in as favourite with Straw Bear a shade of odds against. I probably only have two or three big bets a year these days as I'm rarely that confident about anything - I decided I was going to have my biggest ever bet. I had a few early punts and lost a bit of money, including one on Wee Robbie who came second at a big price. As the Kingwell approached the price was getting shorter and shorter - I'm price sensitive in these things and I didn't weigh in with as much as I had planned. The Bear won well - Afsoun goes into the notebook for the next time the ground really cuts up.
I've been planning to pick up a few horses in claimers this year, and Mick, my racing manager, studies all the claimers (in England and France) assiduously. Mick had highlighted the 4.25 at Lingfield as a possible - one of the fancied horses was a non-runner, but we were still interested in a filly called Baldovina.
Buying in claimers is tricky as there is no chance for a vet's exam - a lot has to be taken on trust. Mick spends time looking at pedigrees and tracking trainer performance to see who is weak, which trainers horses have historically done well for a move and which trainers seem to be badly suited by certain types of horses. Examining motives for sale is a big part of it - the other guy knows the horse better than we do and if he wants out it's a good reason not to want in.
Baldovina was trained by Marco Botti in Newmarket. Botti is no bum trainer - he's very much on the up and has recently moved stables to deal with an influx of top class horses. Tom Dascombe went to the track - he reported before the race on the appearance of the filly. She was a decent size (16 hands or so) but of fairly light build and looking light on bone. She looked as if she could fill out a fair bit. He had spoken to a former assistant at the Botti yard who said that he thought the horse was sound but not classy enough for the owner concerned.
There were several reasons for liking the horse. The pedigree was hard to decipher, but on balance it looked as if she would be better over further in time. Broodmare potential was hard to assess, but couldn't be entirely ruled out. As a filly she was a classier proposition than the colts in the race as she was racing off levels with the principals but had a right to an allowance. She was a very late foal (27th May) - converting to human terms she is about 16 1/2, whereas an early foal would be 18. This is quite a difference and its importance is IMO often underestimated.
Botti is a good trainer but Boldovina was one of his lesser lights, and he had recently moved stables which must have interrupted his routine. Weighing it all up we decided to go for it if she won the race - I had a decent bet on her to get something into the pot in that eventuality. It was only a five horse race, but Neil Callan found all sorts of trouble in running, getting locked out three times - she came third but we felt that with a clear run she may well have won. Tom spoke to Callan after the race - Callan said "that's as good as she is" suggesting that third place was the right result, but we decided to disregard this. Tom put the claim in (£17k) and we got the horse - it was a bit expensive as I had to pay for the horse and stomach the losing bet, but it was a good betting day on balance.
I should have runners this coming week. Mon Michel is down to run at Lingfield on Wednesday and we're hopeful - he has been working well with Nation State, who ran a good second today. Master of the Race is down to run on Tuesday, but unless the ground firms up is unlikely to score. Thunderbolt Jaxon was supposed to be running on Monday but has been taken out - I haven't spoken to Pete so I don't know why this is.
Thursday, 8 February 2007
A long and fruitless day
I travelled up to Newmarket after work and checked into a hotel. I had an early start this morning at Pete Chapple-Hyam's where I was hoping to see a few of our horses work, but the weather got in the way. I spent a while there and had a good chat with Pete.
It's early days but I'm really excited about the 2yos we have with Pete. He cracks on with his 2yos pretty early, and although they haven't done any serious work yet he has a pretty good idea of how they are going to work out. Bouguereau (by Alhaarth) is the one I own outright - the only horse I own outright at the moment having sold Berkhamsted. I wasn't expecting him to be an early horse, but he is quite far forward and could do something this year. Winker Watson, by Piccolo, is coming on very nicely and should come out in May - he is looking very decent. Lord Snooty, by Traditionally and the cheapest of the three should be out early (perhaps April) and if he lives up to current expectation he could be very good - at this stage he is looking like the best of the group. They are all nice horses.
Thunderbolt Jaxon we had high hopes for last year - at the start of the season Pete rated him his joint second best prospect alongside Dutch Art - but things change. He was a long way forward but had recurrent and chronic sore shins and some other problems, and we weren't able to get a run into him. He hasn't grown a lot over the winter and won't be the same force as a 3yo that he might have been as a 2yo, but he could still be a decent horse. He's down to come out on the all-weather on the 19th of this month, and we'll take it from there. Johnny Alpha is another we once had high hopes for, but he has a big barrel like body putting pressure on his legs and he was impossible to keep sound, twice breaking bones in his feet among other problems. Pete is keeping him on as a work horse - he may come right one day but I won't be holding my breath.
I spoke to Pete about some of his other horses. Dutch Art and Authorized are the stable stars, having been the only 2yo G1 winners trained in the UK. Both horses are very well - Dutch Art is a likely runner in the Guineas but Authorized is more of a Derby type. Of the two Authorized looks the more interesting - Dutch Art is an exceptionally well formed and compact horse, whereas Authorized is still immature and needs filling out. He may have more room to progress.
From Pete's I headed down to Tattersalls, the first time I have ever been there. I met up with Tom Dascombe and our vet from Lambourn - she had arrived earlier and had checked out a number of horses. We had five horses on the shortlist and we checked them all out - the vet examined all of them, we had them all out for inspection and we rang around to find out what we could. High Command, a classy 4yo handicapper, had tendonitis and needed a year's rest. Pagana was fit for racing but could have scored better on the vet's exam and was going to be expensive. Sweetheart appealed on breeding as it suggested she would do better in time over longer distances and she got a good vets report. She was on the small side and my advisors thought she wasn't 'A' class broodmare stock, limiting her resell value. Cactus King was clean and well with ability, but hadn't been showing it on the track. We felt that a change of scenery might work for him, but he wasn't going to be cheap and looked short on stamina, limiting his value as a sale to National Hunt at the end of the year. Ballinteni had had a deformed foot - it had healed but his feet were unattractive. After a lot of discussion I decided to pass on all of them.
I met up with Tom Goff, the bloodstock agent who had bought the Chapple-Hyam horses for us - we talked about broodmares and how to value them. I also bumped into Alex Cole, Paul Cole's son - we have a 2yo with Paul. We've been trying to name this horse for ages - he is US bred and every time we settle on a name it is turned down by the US registrar. We finally got a name through this week - Ollie Fliptrik, which I like. He's been going through a growth spurt and we don't know a lot about him yet.
I introduced myself to Henry Cecil, having called him out once before to look at a horse in another sale. I chatted to him for a long time - he's very entertaining, appeared to have no hint of arrogance despite his long and successful career and has a load of stories to tell. He was interested in an unraced Juddmonte horse called Weather Front - having trained for Khaled Abdulla for many years he is well connected there. He had a buyer who was prepared to bid up to £20k - I thought the horse was worth more than that, and said that if the bidding went higher he could carry on for me up to £35k (giving the original buyer first refusal).
We looked at the horse - I thought he was perfect for the job. He was decent sized, staying bred with a nice swagger about him, but weak looking and perhaps a year away from maturity. Juddmonte have a decent entry in this sale every year, and many of them have gone on to be good horses. The NH market is really flying with big prices going through for the right staying types - Weather Front was on the button for a sale into this market at the end of the year and appealed as a value bet.
We were outbid in the ring with the horse going to an Irish NH buyer for £42k. Henry was disappointed as he didn't think he was value at that level. I was kicking myself on the way home - I've been following the NH market and I think he was the right horse to bid up for. I'm annoyed I didn't bid more.
All in all a fruitless but entertaining day, and I learnt a lot. I don't think I'm ever going to get to the point where I can assess a horse's potential on looks, but I don't think my task is to do that - the task for me is to assess the abilities of my advisors and contribute in the areas where I have a bit of expertise.
It's early days but I'm really excited about the 2yos we have with Pete. He cracks on with his 2yos pretty early, and although they haven't done any serious work yet he has a pretty good idea of how they are going to work out. Bouguereau (by Alhaarth) is the one I own outright - the only horse I own outright at the moment having sold Berkhamsted. I wasn't expecting him to be an early horse, but he is quite far forward and could do something this year. Winker Watson, by Piccolo, is coming on very nicely and should come out in May - he is looking very decent. Lord Snooty, by Traditionally and the cheapest of the three should be out early (perhaps April) and if he lives up to current expectation he could be very good - at this stage he is looking like the best of the group. They are all nice horses.
Thunderbolt Jaxon we had high hopes for last year - at the start of the season Pete rated him his joint second best prospect alongside Dutch Art - but things change. He was a long way forward but had recurrent and chronic sore shins and some other problems, and we weren't able to get a run into him. He hasn't grown a lot over the winter and won't be the same force as a 3yo that he might have been as a 2yo, but he could still be a decent horse. He's down to come out on the all-weather on the 19th of this month, and we'll take it from there. Johnny Alpha is another we once had high hopes for, but he has a big barrel like body putting pressure on his legs and he was impossible to keep sound, twice breaking bones in his feet among other problems. Pete is keeping him on as a work horse - he may come right one day but I won't be holding my breath.
I spoke to Pete about some of his other horses. Dutch Art and Authorized are the stable stars, having been the only 2yo G1 winners trained in the UK. Both horses are very well - Dutch Art is a likely runner in the Guineas but Authorized is more of a Derby type. Of the two Authorized looks the more interesting - Dutch Art is an exceptionally well formed and compact horse, whereas Authorized is still immature and needs filling out. He may have more room to progress.
From Pete's I headed down to Tattersalls, the first time I have ever been there. I met up with Tom Dascombe and our vet from Lambourn - she had arrived earlier and had checked out a number of horses. We had five horses on the shortlist and we checked them all out - the vet examined all of them, we had them all out for inspection and we rang around to find out what we could. High Command, a classy 4yo handicapper, had tendonitis and needed a year's rest. Pagana was fit for racing but could have scored better on the vet's exam and was going to be expensive. Sweetheart appealed on breeding as it suggested she would do better in time over longer distances and she got a good vets report. She was on the small side and my advisors thought she wasn't 'A' class broodmare stock, limiting her resell value. Cactus King was clean and well with ability, but hadn't been showing it on the track. We felt that a change of scenery might work for him, but he wasn't going to be cheap and looked short on stamina, limiting his value as a sale to National Hunt at the end of the year. Ballinteni had had a deformed foot - it had healed but his feet were unattractive. After a lot of discussion I decided to pass on all of them.
I met up with Tom Goff, the bloodstock agent who had bought the Chapple-Hyam horses for us - we talked about broodmares and how to value them. I also bumped into Alex Cole, Paul Cole's son - we have a 2yo with Paul. We've been trying to name this horse for ages - he is US bred and every time we settle on a name it is turned down by the US registrar. We finally got a name through this week - Ollie Fliptrik, which I like. He's been going through a growth spurt and we don't know a lot about him yet.
I introduced myself to Henry Cecil, having called him out once before to look at a horse in another sale. I chatted to him for a long time - he's very entertaining, appeared to have no hint of arrogance despite his long and successful career and has a load of stories to tell. He was interested in an unraced Juddmonte horse called Weather Front - having trained for Khaled Abdulla for many years he is well connected there. He had a buyer who was prepared to bid up to £20k - I thought the horse was worth more than that, and said that if the bidding went higher he could carry on for me up to £35k (giving the original buyer first refusal).
We looked at the horse - I thought he was perfect for the job. He was decent sized, staying bred with a nice swagger about him, but weak looking and perhaps a year away from maturity. Juddmonte have a decent entry in this sale every year, and many of them have gone on to be good horses. The NH market is really flying with big prices going through for the right staying types - Weather Front was on the button for a sale into this market at the end of the year and appealed as a value bet.
We were outbid in the ring with the horse going to an Irish NH buyer for £42k. Henry was disappointed as he didn't think he was value at that level. I was kicking myself on the way home - I've been following the NH market and I think he was the right horse to bid up for. I'm annoyed I didn't bid more.
All in all a fruitless but entertaining day, and I learnt a lot. I don't think I'm ever going to get to the point where I can assess a horse's potential on looks, but I don't think my task is to do that - the task for me is to assess the abilities of my advisors and contribute in the areas where I have a bit of expertise.
Wednesday, 7 February 2007
Cheltenham fancies
All quiet on the western front at the moment so time to run through a few of my early Cheltenham fancies.
David Pipe will go into Cheltenham with a lot of ammunition, and for now I'm looking at three of his. Buena Vista runs in the Arkle, and although he only just held on last time he is progressive and I know David likes him. Seven is My Number goes in the Champion Bumper - he's a very nice horse. Standin Obligation runs in the Sun Alliance Chase and could go well at a nice price.
I continue to believe that Degas Art is the one to be on in the Triumph, particularly if the ground comes up good or better. The handicap snip for the Fred Winter could be Chaninbar, who has been allotted an extremely generous mark of 114. Katchit, who beat him 1 3/4 lengths at the start of the season, is currently on 146 - Chaninbar has run poorly since then but I understand he has had problems which have since been dealt with. He could really be thrown in.
I'm sticking with Straw Bear for the Champion despite his defeat at the hands of Detroit City on the weekend. He was fairly beaten but Nick's horses haven't been running that well so I'm hoping there is still plenty of improvement to come.
I'm off to the sales at Newmarket tomorrow with a shortlist of horses to look at - I'll update my blog on my return.
David Pipe will go into Cheltenham with a lot of ammunition, and for now I'm looking at three of his. Buena Vista runs in the Arkle, and although he only just held on last time he is progressive and I know David likes him. Seven is My Number goes in the Champion Bumper - he's a very nice horse. Standin Obligation runs in the Sun Alliance Chase and could go well at a nice price.
I continue to believe that Degas Art is the one to be on in the Triumph, particularly if the ground comes up good or better. The handicap snip for the Fred Winter could be Chaninbar, who has been allotted an extremely generous mark of 114. Katchit, who beat him 1 3/4 lengths at the start of the season, is currently on 146 - Chaninbar has run poorly since then but I understand he has had problems which have since been dealt with. He could really be thrown in.
I'm sticking with Straw Bear for the Champion despite his defeat at the hands of Detroit City on the weekend. He was fairly beaten but Nick's horses haven't been running that well so I'm hoping there is still plenty of improvement to come.
I'm off to the sales at Newmarket tomorrow with a shortlist of horses to look at - I'll update my blog on my return.
Friday, 2 February 2007
Follow the Bear
BETTER TOGETHER ran well down the field at Chepstow - apparently he jumped ok and he looks to have come back alright. His day will come but it is probably a long way off.
Nick runs his "superstar" in the Agfa hurdle at Sandown tomorrow. There is no horse I have enjoyed watching on the gallops more than STRAW BEAR - he is big and muscular and powers up the hill like a machine. He's a biggish price for the Champion after his odds on failure in the Christmas Hurdle, but it's public knowledge that he wasn't well that day and the race should be disregarded. On all his other form he's there or therabouts on a par with Detroit City - he's ranked 1lb behind him in the official ratings. So why is Straw Bear 14/1 for the Champion whereas Detroit City is 100/30? He shouldn't be - Detroit City may turn out to be a wonder horse but Straw Bear, who is a year older but only made his hurdling debut in 2006, also has the right to improve. I've backed him for the Champion and I'll be backing him in the Agfa tomorrow.
I've been going through the catalogue for the February Tattersalls sale, but although the sale is still a week away I am already frustrated. Juddmonte had entered a group of unraced 3yos with staying pedigrees - they seem to do this every year. These horses have presumably been very slow to come to hand and may never be fast enough to make an impression on the flat in the UK - they are interesting potential trades to sell into the NH market in a year's time though. Unfortunately the two best looking prospects were withdrawn this morning, presumably having been sold privately. This is the way of things in the market at the moment - very few decent horses are getting to the ring, and what gets there goes for huge prices.
Nick runs his "superstar" in the Agfa hurdle at Sandown tomorrow. There is no horse I have enjoyed watching on the gallops more than STRAW BEAR - he is big and muscular and powers up the hill like a machine. He's a biggish price for the Champion after his odds on failure in the Christmas Hurdle, but it's public knowledge that he wasn't well that day and the race should be disregarded. On all his other form he's there or therabouts on a par with Detroit City - he's ranked 1lb behind him in the official ratings. So why is Straw Bear 14/1 for the Champion whereas Detroit City is 100/30? He shouldn't be - Detroit City may turn out to be a wonder horse but Straw Bear, who is a year older but only made his hurdling debut in 2006, also has the right to improve. I've backed him for the Champion and I'll be backing him in the Agfa tomorrow.
I've been going through the catalogue for the February Tattersalls sale, but although the sale is still a week away I am already frustrated. Juddmonte had entered a group of unraced 3yos with staying pedigrees - they seem to do this every year. These horses have presumably been very slow to come to hand and may never be fast enough to make an impression on the flat in the UK - they are interesting potential trades to sell into the NH market in a year's time though. Unfortunately the two best looking prospects were withdrawn this morning, presumably having been sold privately. This is the way of things in the market at the moment - very few decent horses are getting to the ring, and what gets there goes for huge prices.
Thursday, 1 February 2007
Buying and Selling
I sold BERKHAMSTED at the Doncaster sale today. He went for 12,000 Guineas, bought by Evan Williams who will now take him jumping. He may turn out to be a decent hurdler - he has enough size and he stays. I made a small profit on him but with training costs I am out of pocket - no regrets though.
At the same sale I tried to buy a horse called PIRES. He was trained by Mick Channon as a 2yo and ran in seven races in quick succession last year, ending on a mark of 99 - Mick Stone, my racing manager, brought him to my attention. The owners had apparently fallen out over the campaign to be run with the horse, with one wanting him to be put away for the NH and the other wanting to carry on on the flat. I had two trainers go down to Channon's yard and had a full vet's report - they were fairly unanimous in their assessment. This was quite possibly a very special horse, but built to be a chaser and still physically very immature. Nick Gifford said that in three years of attending the HIT sales he had never come across a horse of such fine confirmation and physicality.
The vet's report threw up a lot of small problems, a product presumably of his rather intense 2yo campaign which was mostly on G/F or firm going. None looked long term issues. I made a tentative approach to the owners to see if the horse could be bought before the sale, putting in a low bid which they turned down. I instructed Tom Dascombe to bid at the auction for me, thinking the horse might go for somewhere between £100k and £150k. As it was he went for 300,000 Guineas knocked down to Tony Martin - I was in the wrong ball park.
It was a thought provoking and learning experience. I'm annoyed that I didn't try harder to get the horse out of the auction beforehand - no-one had any idea what he was going to go for and the owners may have accepted a bid of £150k, and perhaps I was a bit gutless. Auction prices continue to be sky high, which is a worry and also makes me want to be looking for young horses to buy as trades. I don't believe the horse should have run at all as a 2yo, let alone seven times on firmish ground.
At Gary Moore's MON MICHEL split a foot across the frog and has been on anti-biotics, and KING'S HEAD had a bad attack of colic but is now ok. Both will be fine but it's a little more time lost. Nick Gifford has found what he believes to have been the problem with CONSERVATION - he appears to have sprained his front suspensory ligaments. This should be treatable (we are waiting on a scan) but it will be time off for him and may be the end of his jumps season for this year - we may take this rest opportunity to have him gelded. BETTER TOGETHER runs tomorrow at Chepstow - he's a slow burner and won't really come into himself for another year or two. I couldn't rule a win out but he'll be an outsider.
At the same sale I tried to buy a horse called PIRES. He was trained by Mick Channon as a 2yo and ran in seven races in quick succession last year, ending on a mark of 99 - Mick Stone, my racing manager, brought him to my attention. The owners had apparently fallen out over the campaign to be run with the horse, with one wanting him to be put away for the NH and the other wanting to carry on on the flat. I had two trainers go down to Channon's yard and had a full vet's report - they were fairly unanimous in their assessment. This was quite possibly a very special horse, but built to be a chaser and still physically very immature. Nick Gifford said that in three years of attending the HIT sales he had never come across a horse of such fine confirmation and physicality.
The vet's report threw up a lot of small problems, a product presumably of his rather intense 2yo campaign which was mostly on G/F or firm going. None looked long term issues. I made a tentative approach to the owners to see if the horse could be bought before the sale, putting in a low bid which they turned down. I instructed Tom Dascombe to bid at the auction for me, thinking the horse might go for somewhere between £100k and £150k. As it was he went for 300,000 Guineas knocked down to Tony Martin - I was in the wrong ball park.
It was a thought provoking and learning experience. I'm annoyed that I didn't try harder to get the horse out of the auction beforehand - no-one had any idea what he was going to go for and the owners may have accepted a bid of £150k, and perhaps I was a bit gutless. Auction prices continue to be sky high, which is a worry and also makes me want to be looking for young horses to buy as trades. I don't believe the horse should have run at all as a 2yo, let alone seven times on firmish ground.
At Gary Moore's MON MICHEL split a foot across the frog and has been on anti-biotics, and KING'S HEAD had a bad attack of colic but is now ok. Both will be fine but it's a little more time lost. Nick Gifford has found what he believes to have been the problem with CONSERVATION - he appears to have sprained his front suspensory ligaments. This should be treatable (we are waiting on a scan) but it will be time off for him and may be the end of his jumps season for this year - we may take this rest opportunity to have him gelded. BETTER TOGETHER runs tomorrow at Chepstow - he's a slow burner and won't really come into himself for another year or two. I couldn't rule a win out but he'll be an outsider.
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